Russia’s grain harvest is projected to reach 132–138 million tons in 2025, including 85–90 million tons of wheat, according to Igor Pavensky, head of the Expert Committee of the Grain Exporters and Producers Union. This marks a notable recovery from 125.9 million tons in 2024, when severe drought slashed yields.
Barley production is forecast to rise to 18–18.4 million tons (up from 16.7 million tons), while corn output could reach 14.7–15 million tons (compared to 13 million tons last year). The rebound is attributed to improved weather conditions and expanded sowing areas, particularly for pulses, which may hit a record 6.7–6.9 million tons (versus 5.4 million tons in 2024).
Weather Challenges and Regional Concerns
Despite optimistic projections, weather remains a critical factor. Late April and early May frosts slightly damaged crops, though less severely than in 2024. Drought conditions persist in southern Russia, including Rostov Oblast and parts of the Volga region, threatening yields. However, recent rains have replenished soil moisture, offering some relief.
Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut noted that sowing areas have expanded by 1 million hectares (to 84 million hectares), with 20 million hectares dedicated to winter crops. While some regions face plant stress due to dry weather, the overall outlook remains positive.
Global Wheat Market: Russia Leads Export Growth
Globally, wheat production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 643–648 million tons, up from 629 million tons in 2024/25, driven by higher yields in the EU and Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and Australia may see declines after strong previous seasons.
Russia is set to remain the world’s top wheat exporter, shipping 42–45 million tons (up from 41.5 million tons). The EU follows with 29.8 million tons, while Canada ranks third with 25.5 million tons. Global wheat trade is projected to grow by 4.1–7.1%, reaching 177–180 million tons.
Consensus Forecasts and Export Potential
The Price Index Center (CIC) estimates Russia’s total grain output at 130.9 million tons, with wheat contributing 84.5 million tons. Analysts revised wheat export projections upward to 44.4 million tons for 2025/26, reinforcing Russia’s key role in global markets.
After a challenging 2024, Russia’s grain sector is poised for recovery, supported by favorable weather and expanded production. However, regional droughts and global market fluctuations remain risks. With strong export demand, Russia is set to reinforce its position as a leading grain supplier, benefiting farmers and agribusinesses alike.
Error
