Latest Trends in Grain Markets and Weather Conditions for July 2024
In today’s market update, we explore the recent fluctuations in grain and oilseed prices, weather conditions affecting major agricultural regions, and the broader economic context shaping these trends. As of July 11, 2024, the grain markets have shown mixed results, with some commodities experiencing price declines while others see modest gains. Here’s a detailed look at the current market situation and forecasts:
Grain and Oilseed Price Movements
- Chicago December 2024 Wheat: The price fell by US10.5 cents per bushel, settling at US585 cents per bushel.
- Kansas December 2024 Wheat: Decreased by 12.5 cents per bushel to 583.75 cents per bushel.
- Minneapolis December 2024 Wheat: Down 6.75 cents per bushel to 629.5 cents per bushel.
- MATIF December 2024 Wheat: Dropped €3.75 per ton to €229.50 per ton.
- Corn December 2024: Slightly decreased by 1.25 cents per bushel to 407.25 cents per bushel.
- Soybeans November 2024: Declined by 13 cents per bushel to 1067 cents per bushel.
- Winnipeg Canola November 2024: Fell by C$14.40 per ton to C$617.90 per ton.
- MATIF Rapeseed November 2024: Reduced by €6.50 per ton to €483.75 per ton.
- ASX January 2025 Wheat: Remained unchanged at A$352 per ton.
- ASX January 2025 Barley: Also unchanged at A$303.90 per ton.
- AUD Dollar: Up by 6 points to US$0.6747.
The grain and oilseed markets have seen a general decline, with soft commodities witnessing a decrease. This trend is attributed to asset class selling and anticipation of tonight’s USDA report, which may alter market dynamics. Despite the downturn in most grain prices, Russian FOB wheat prices have shown a slight increase, diverging from the US market trends.
Economic and Weather Influences
In the US, the market is bracing for potential adjustments in the USDA report. The USDA might increase the balance sheet figures, though this change might be premature. The market expects around 500,000 tons of wheat exports this week, driven by recent trends and the impact of the 4th of July holiday.
Corn prices face significant pressure due to a large speculative short position and concerns about the financial viability of corn farming at current prices. If prices remain around US$4 per bushel, growers might incur losses of at least $250 per acre.
Weather conditions are also a focal point, with the August forecast becoming crucial for crop yields. Hurricane Beryl has provided some moisture to the US row crop belt, but long-term weather predictions are uncertain, with current forecasts calling for potential lower rainfall and higher temperatures.
In the Black Sea region, a heat wave with temperatures reaching 35-38°C is expected to impact corn and sunflower crops in Russia and Ukraine, adding to the market’s watchlist.
Australian Market Insights
In Australia, Western Australian canola bids fell to A$800 per ton FIS, and new season wheat bids remained around A$370 per ton. Meanwhile, new crop lupins saw increased interest, with prices hitting A$500 per ton for the Geraldton and Kwinana port zones.
In Eastern Australia, canola prices dropped about A$20 per ton, while barley bids were adjusted but overall cereal top bids remained stable or slightly higher. Recent rainfall has been significant in South Australia, New South Wales, and Eastern Western Australia, though SE South Australia and Western Victoria continue to experience below-average rainfall. Cold temperatures in NSW cropping regions are also noteworthy, with minimum temperatures dropping to between 1°C and 4°C.
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