Weather and Demand Dynamics Shape Market Trends
Feed wheat and barley prices have stabilized or increased slightly over the past week. This trend is influenced by patchy rain creating logistical challenges in the north and unexpected demand from sheep producers in the south. Recent rainfall across most cropping and mixed-farming areas of South Australia (SA) and Victoria has been beneficial for winter cereals, pulses, and canola. However, a significant feed deficit persists from the eastern Riverina of New South Wales (NSW) to the South East of SA due to low soil and air temperatures, which prevent pasture growth.
Northern Region Updates
Patchy rain in southern Queensland and northern NSW has led to some short-term logistical issues for grain loading on farms. This situation has prompted consumer shorts to emerge in the market, lifting barley values by approximately $5 per tonne. Consumers are aiming to secure the remaining current-crop supplies ahead of the barley harvest expected to start in October.
Wheat and barley crops in southern Queensland and northern NSW show above-average yield potential, supported by the La Niña Watch status issued by the Bureau of Meteorology. However, uncertainties remain regarding the crop size and harvest timing, as factors like frost and wet weather in September could impact yield and harvesting speed.
Currently, barley is being transported by road from central and northern NSW as stocks in Queensland-NSW border regions and Moree districts have diminished.
Cottonseed Market
The cottonseed market has seen steady trading over the past week. Prices in southern Queensland’s delivered Downs market are at $500-$505 per tonne, with ex gin prices around $460 per tonne in the Gwydir Valley and $450 per tonne in the Namoi. In southern NSW, ex gin cottonseed is trading at around $465 per tonne.
Southern Region Updates
Victoria’s Western District received up to 30mm of rain, with key grain-growing areas like the Mallee and Wimmera receiving 5-10mm. However, winter conditions and frost mean no pasture growth is expected until late August, leading to continued supplementary feeding of sheep.
Justin Fay, trading manager at Reid Stockfeeds, reports that increased demand from sheep producers, alongside beef and dairy cattle needs, has raised up-country grain use to unusually high levels. The dry conditions have led to higher production of sheep pellets at mills like Camperdown.
Mixed farmers, who typically rely on paddock feed, are now competing for grain due to dry conditions. Corn, priced $20-$25 per tonne above SFW wheat, is now in high demand among sheep producers, a trend previously unseen. Barley is also in demand from both graziers and exporters.
Forward selling of new-crop grain remains limited as growers and traders await more consistent conditions before committing to volume. In southern NSW, livestock producers are supplementing feed with hay and grain due to insufficient rain.
