In its latest monthly report, agricultural consultancy Strategie Grains has raised its 2025 production forecasts for EU soft wheat and barley, citing favorable conditions in Southern Europe. Soft wheat output is now projected at 129.8 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from April’s estimate and 14.7% higher than 2024’s rain-hit harvest. Barley production is also revised upward by 1.2 million tons to 52.4 million tons, a 5.4% increase year-on-year.
This marks the second consecutive month of upward adjustments for both crops, driven by strong yield potential in Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria. According to Strategie Grains, “With just weeks remaining before harvest, crop conditions in these regions remain highly promising.”
Northern Europe’s Drought: A Growing Concern
Despite the positive outlook, dry spells in Northern Europe—particularly France, Germany, Scandinavia, and Poland—threaten winter and spring barley as well as soft wheat yields. The report warns that “if dry conditions persist through June, EU wheat and barley output could drop by several million tons.” However, this is not yet the base-case scenario.
Maize: Slight Downgrade Amid Planting Challenges
For maize, Strategie Grains notes smooth planting in Southern France and Southeast Europe, but Germany and Poland need more rainfall to ensure optimal growth. The 2025 maize forecast was trimmed to 59.9 million tons (from 60.1 million tons in April), with the company stating that “exceeding 60 million tons will require stable weather throughout the season.”
A Mixed Picture for EU Cereals
While Southern Europe’s strong performance boosts overall EU grain forecasts, Northern drought risks and maize planting hurdles highlight the fragility of agricultural output under climate variability. Farmers and agronomists should monitor regional weather trends closely, as final yields will hinge on June’s rainfall.
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