Consultancy firm AgRural has raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn harvest from 124.8 million tons to 128.5 million tons, a 3.7-million-ton increase. This adjustment reflects better-than-expected yields in the second-crop corn (safrinha), especially in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top grain-producing state.
According to recent data from CONAB (Brazil’s National Supply Company), Brazil’s total corn production could even surpass 130 million tons, driven by expanded planting areas and improved farming techniques. The USDA also projects Brazil to remain the world’s second-largest corn exporter, with shipments reaching 52 million tons in 2024/25.
Harvest Delays Due to Adverse Weather
Despite the optimistic yield forecast, fieldwork has been sluggish. As of May 29, only 1.3% of the safrinha corn area had been harvested, far behind schedule. Unseasonal rains and cold snaps in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná have delayed combines, though analysts note that crop damage has been minimal so far.
AgRural reports that while soil moisture benefited early growth, persistent wet conditions now risk lowering grain quality if harvesting is further postponed. Farmers are advised to monitor weather updates closely to optimize harvest timing.
A Promising but Challenging Season
Brazil’s corn sector continues to show resilience, with record production forecasts reinforcing its role as a global agricultural powerhouse. However, weather-related harvest delays highlight the ongoing vulnerability of farming to climate variability. Efficient logistics and adaptive farming strategies will be key to maximizing this season’s potential.
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