A Shifting Market: How Morocco Became France’s Top Wheat Customer in a Global Glut
The global wheat trade is experiencing a significant realignment in 2025, driven by a combination of bumper harvests and shifting demand. According to analysis from Argus Media, France, Europe’s largest wheat exporter, is at the center of this shift. Its harvest is projected to surge by 30% compared to 2024, creating a surplus that is seeking new homes in a crowded and competitive international market.
Morocco Steps into the Spotlight
In a notable change from traditional patterns, the Kingdom of Morocco has ascended to become the top buyer of French wheat in 2025. This move comes as two of France’s historic major clients, Algeria and China, have reduced their procurement. Industry insiders project that Morocco’s imports of French wheat could reach an impressive 2.5 million tonnes this year. This pivot underscores Morocco’s strategic sourcing and its reliance on high-quality European grain to meet domestic needs.
The demand is not isolated to North Africa. Sub-Saharan African nations are close behind, with expected purchases of 2.4 million tonnes, while Egypt is projected to import 900,000 tonnes. This demonstrates that while specific buyers may change, the broader African continent remains a critical and growing market for European exporters.
A European Sea of Grain and Plummeting Prices
The situation in France is part of a wider European trend of overproduction. Other EU member states are also reporting record or near-record harvests. For instance, combined wheat production in Spain and Romania is forecast to hit a record 12.2 million tonnes, while Bulgaria anticipates a harvest of 7.7 million tonnes. Analysts estimate that Romania and Bulgaria alone could account for half of all European wheat exports this season.
This flood of grain has created a congested market and driven down prices globally. On the Euronext exchange, the price for wheat delivered in December is hovering near €190 per tonne. Market analysts concur that without a major climatic or geopolitical event, prices are likely to remain suppressed in the short term. This price collapse is exacerbated by similarly large supplies from the Black Sea region, creating a perfect storm of global oversupply.
The Producer’s Dilemma: Cost vs. Revenue
For farmers and agricultural producers, this market reality is stark. The current market price of approximately €190 per tonne is insufficient for profitability. An Argus Media market analyst consultant noted that the average cost of production for French wheat stands at €200 per tonne. This means that at current prices, producers are selling at a loss. The economic pressure is so significant that any wheat not exported or consumed domestically will be forced into storage. Projections indicate that French wheat stocks could swell to 4 million tonnes, a level not seen since the 2004-2005 season.
The 2025 wheat season illustrates the volatile and interconnected nature of global agricultural markets. France’s success in finding a new primary customer in Morocco is a tactical victory in a strategic challenge. However, this victory is muted by the broader context of a global supply glut that is driving prices below the cost of production. For farmers, agronomists, and industry stakeholders, this environment underscores the critical need for risk management, cost efficiency, and market diversification. The current crisis highlights that productivity alone is not a guarantee of profitability, and the industry must navigate the delicate balance between yield, market demand, and operational costs to remain sustainable.
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