In a decisive move to prioritize human food security, the Government of Punjab, Pakistan, has invoked Section 144 to impose an immediate 30-day ban on the use of wheat by feed mills. Effective from September 5th, the order, issued by the provincial Home Department, mandates that wheat may only be processed by flour mills for the production of flour for human consumption. This policy is a direct response to escalating domestic wheat and flour prices and aims to prevent the diversion of an estimated 104,184 metric tons of wheat currently held by feed mills into poultry feed production.
This intervention is not occurring in a vacuum. It reflects a growing global trend where governments are forced to make difficult choices in the face of tightening food supplies. According to the latest Food Outlook report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global cereal stocks-to-use ratios are projected to remain tight, keeping markets volatile. Furthermore, the International Grains Council has revised its 2024/25 world wheat production forecast downward due to adverse weather in key exporting regions, including parts of the EU and Russia. This constricted supply is a key driver of the price disparity highlighted by Pakistan Flour Mills Association (PFMA) Chairman Junaid Aziz, who noted that local wheat was priced at Rs96/kg ($0.34) compared to an international price of Rs85/kg ($0.29).
The data from Punjab underscores the severity of the local crisis. Over just one month (August 1 to September 1), wheat prices skyrocketed by 56%, from Rs62/kg to Rs97/kg. This inflation translated directly to the consumer: the price of fine flour increased by 37%, from Rs79/kg to Rs108/kg. These figures exceed general global inflation trends for staples, indicating acute regional supply chain pressures. The PFMA has warned that without government-facilitated imports of at least 1.5 million tonnes of wheat, price stability will be difficult to achieve. This aligns with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report, which identifies Pakistan as a significant potential importer in the current marketing year to bridge its domestic shortfall.
The government’s decision fundamentally pits two vital agricultural sectors against each other: human nutrition and commercial poultry production. While the ban may temporarily increase the availability of wheat for grinding, it creates immediate challenges for the feed industry and the poultry sector, which relies on wheat as a primary energy component in rations. This could lead to increased feed costs and subsequent rises in poultry meat and egg prices, demonstrating the complex interplay within the agri-food system where addressing one problem can inadvertently create another.
Punjab’s 30-day ban on wheat for feed is a stark example of the tactical measures governments must consider to ensure staple food availability for their populations. It is a short-term solution to an acute crisis, but it underscores a longer-term vulnerability: an over-reliance on a single grain and the profound impact of global market shocks on local food security. For farmers, agronomists, and policymakers, this event highlights the critical need for strategies that enhance domestic grain production resilience, diversify feed ingredient options, and develop robust data-driven food security policies to navigate an increasingly volatile global grain market.
