On January 1, Kazakhstan officially lifted its wheat import ban on Russian grain, a policy that had been in place since August of the previous year. This decision has been warmly welcomed by Altai region’s farmers, who see it as a significant opportunity to revitalize exports. However, as of now, the expected surge in demand has not yet materialized, and agricultural experts suggest the situation may evolve more gradually.
In recent years, Russia’s grain export volumes have faced challenges due to Kazakhstan’s restrictions, which previously allowed limited wheat imports for specific uses like flour mills and poultry farms. The total grain export from Siberia and the Altai region to Kazakhstan decreased by 20% in 2023, largely because of these restrictions. Despite this, the demand for Altai’s buckwheat and peas saw a notable rise, with exports of these products growing by several times.
Now that the borders are open again, there is cautious optimism. The initial interest from Kazakhstan is relatively low, as the wheat prices in both regions are fairly similar. However, experts believe that as Kazakhstan’s domestic wheat supply begins to dwindle, Altai’s wheat, known for its higher quality, will become increasingly attractive.
According to Maria Shostak, director of the Altai branch of the Federal Center for Evaluation of Safety and Quality in the Agro-Industrial Complex, the quality of Altai wheat is generally superior to Kazakhstan’s, which tends to be high-ash. Altai’s third-class wheat, for instance, is essential in producing high-quality flour, making it a valuable ingredient for milling companies in Kazakhstan. The first signs of growing demand for this wheat may appear in the coming months as Kazakhstan’s reserves of high-quality grain are expected to run out.
Additionally, experts suggest that Kazakhstan’s role as a regional grain hub could create new opportunities for Altai farmers. Historically, Kazakhstan has acted as a re-exporter of Russian wheat to countries in Central Asia such as Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. In the past, Kazakhstan would purchase Russian wheat to sell it to these neighboring countries, avoiding export tariffs that Russia imposes. With its vast wheat production in 2024, Kazakhstan’s need to import Russian wheat is now more strategic than urgent.
As the market dynamics shift, Altai farmers are likely to see more opportunities for selling their wheat, particularly lower-grade wheat (5th class) with sprouting. This grade is particularly in demand in Central Asian countries, where wheat is used for specific types of flour. Kazakhstan’s re-opening of the border also ensures that prices for certain types of wheat will not fall further, offering stability for Altai’s agricultural economy.
The reopening of Kazakhstan’s borders to Russian wheat presents an opportunity for Altai farmers, although the immediate effects may not be as dramatic as expected. Over time, as Kazakhstan’s wheat supply decreases, Altai’s higher-quality wheat will likely attract more attention, especially for milling purposes. While the market is still adjusting, the shift in trade policies may offer significant benefits to the Altai agricultural sector, particularly in the long run.
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