Russian Wheat Exports Down 65% in March: What’s Driving the Slowdown?
According to the Russian Grain Union (RGU), Russia exported 1.784 million tons of wheat in March 2025, marking a dramatic drop of 65% compared to 5.126 million tons shipped in March 2024. The sharp decline highlights a complex mix of factors influencing Russian grain exports—from rising prices to limited shipping capacity.
Despite initial forecasts of only 1.6 million tons in exports by the end of the second ten-day period of the month, stronger-than-expected shipments in the final days allowed exporters to slightly exceed expectations. However, the overall picture remains one of contraction and concern for traders.
Fewer Buyers on the Global Market
One of the most significant developments is the drop in the number of importing countries. In March 2024, 41 countries imported Russian wheat. By March 2025, that number had fallen to just 21.
Here’s a look at the top destinations:
- Egypt: Imported 301,500 tons, down from 1.42 million tons a year earlier (–4.7x).
- Bangladesh: Cut imports from 357,000 to 151,000 tons (–2.4x).
- Sudan: Slightly increased imports to 135,000 tons, up from 121,000 tons.
- Morocco: Tripled its purchases to 92,000 tons.
- Turkey: Drastically reduced imports from 522,000 to 95,000 tons (–5.5x).
- Iran: Resumed imports at 71,500 tons after a period of inactivity.
Additionally, smaller but growing demand came from Djibouti, Lebanon, Nigeria, Somalia, and Tunisia, although specific figures were not disclosed.
Fewer Exporters and Fewer Ports
Export capacity has also been squeezed. In March 2024, 90 exporters and 15 ports were active. By March 2025, that had dropped to just 25 exporters and 11 ports.
Key port activity:
- Novorossiysk: Shipped 763,000 tons, down nearly threefold from 2.29 million tons.
- Azov: Plummeted fivefold to 117,000 tons.
- Rostov-on-Don: Fell to 239,000 tons, down by more than half.
- Port Kavkaz was the only exception, doubling exports to 44,600 tons, all to Egypt.
This reduction in port throughput points to logistical bottlenecks, fewer available shipping contracts, or decreased competitiveness.
Wheat Prices Surge—Good for Farmers, Tough for Exporters
Another major factor is pricing. Russian wheat on an FOB basis (Novorossiysk) increased to $253/ton by March 1, up $3 from the previous month. In contrast:
- French wheat remained steady at $237/ton.
- German wheat fell sharply from $238 to $227/ton, aided by favorable yield forecasts.
Russian wheat is now $16 more expensive than French wheat, a gap that makes it less attractive to price-sensitive buyers in Africa and Asia.
Domestically, the situation is different. Producer prices rose from 15,550 to 15,760 rubles/ton (excluding VAT), a 7% increase in dollar terms—from $194 to $207/ton. This price trend, while hurting export margins, benefits farmers and could stimulate increased wheat production and expanded planting areas in the next season.
Russia’s March wheat export slump reflects a confluence of price-driven demand reduction, logistics limitations, and shrinking market access. While the domestic price environment favors farmers, exporters face tightening margins and a more competitive global market. To sustain its role as a top wheat supplier, Russia may need to address logistical constraints and recalibrate pricing strategies in light of growing international competition.
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