A Stronger Harvest Despite Yield Decline
South Korea is forecasting a modest rise in soybean production for 2024, with estimates ranging between 145,300 and 152,300 tons. This marks an increase of 2.7 to 7.6% compared to the 2023 harvest. However, while the total production is set to rise, expected yields per hectare are slightly lower due to the challenges posed by this year’s climate.
According to the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI), the average yield per hectare is anticipated to be between 196 to 205 kilograms, a decrease of 1.9 to 6.2% compared to last year’s average of 209 kilograms. This decline is primarily attributed to the high temperatures experienced during the ripening period between late August and mid-October, which hindered the crop’s growth.
Factors Impacting Soybean Production
While the overall soybean production is projected to increase, various factors are at play that have influenced crop yields. Among these, the performance of different types of soybeans has varied. Field soybeans (grown in non-irrigated areas) saw poorer results, with 56.7% of sampled farms reporting lower yields compared to 2023. This contrasts with paddy soybeans, which fared better—50.1% showed satisfactory growth, and only 32.3% experienced poor conditions. This improvement is likely due to better weather conditions this year compared to last year’s flooding, which significantly affected the early growth stages.
Despite the drop in yields per hectare, the increase in overall production is largely attributed to an expanded cultivation area. The KREI estimates the soybean growing area for 2024 to be 74,155 hectares, a 9.6% increase over the previous year’s area of 67,671 hectares. This growth can be partly credited to the government’s support for soybean cultivation under the Strategic Crop Direct Payment Scheme, which has notably increased the area dedicated to paddy soybeans by over 30%.
Price Trends and Market Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to remain stable through the harvest season (November 2023 to January 2024), with prices showing moderate increases in the early months of 2023. However, in October, government stock releases caused a brief dip in prices. According to aT (Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation), the average wholesale price for soybeans during the off-season months (August to October) was 5,543 KRW per kilogram, reflecting a slight rise of 1.1% compared to the previous year.
Despite the forecasted increase in soybean production for 2024, the market faces uncertainties, including potential government interventions like stock releases. The overall supply of soybeans increased by about 12,000 tons in 2023, but the government’s purchase of additional stocks of 14,000 tons helped keep market prices in check.
The 2024 soybean production outlook for South Korea indicates a modest increase in total yield, driven by expanded cultivation areas. However, challenges such as high temperatures during the maturation period and the uneven performance of different soybean types have led to a slight decline in per-hectare yields. Farmers and industry stakeholders will need to navigate market fluctuations and the continuing impact of climate factors to ensure sustainable production.
Government support and proactive crop management strategies will play critical roles in mitigating risks, especially as the global climate continues to affect agricultural outcomes.
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