In the third quarter of 2024, the US whole wheat flour production saw a modest increase of 1.5%, reaching 4.681 million hundredweight (cwts), up from 4.612 million cwts in the same period in 2023. This marks the third consecutive quarter in which whole wheat flour output has exceeded figures from the previous year. While the increase is positive, it also signals ongoing shifts in the wheat flour market and consumption patterns.
Growth Trends and Historical Context
Though production showed a slight rise in the July-September period, it remains lower than the peak production levels seen in prior years. Whole wheat flour production in the third quarter of 2024 was actually less than in every year prior to 2022, including 2021, when it reached 4.974 million cwts, and the 2015 high of 6.326 million cwts. As of 2024, whole wheat flour represented 4.4% of total US flour production, a small but notable increase from 4.3% in the same period in 2023 and from 4.1% earlier this year.
While the year-to-date figures show a slight rise in production—13.682 million cwts compared to 13.404 million cwts during the same months in 2023—this total still falls below the 14 million cwts mark seen in previous years, including 2022’s 14.416 million cwts. This suggests that while demand for whole wheat flour is increasing incrementally, it has not yet returned to the higher consumption levels experienced during peak years.
Whole Wheat Semolina Production Declines
In contrast to whole wheat flour, the production of whole wheat semolina, a key ingredient in pasta production, has seen a significant decline. The third-quarter output of 86,000 cwts was down 23% from the 111,000 cwts produced in the same period in 2023. While the production of whole wheat semolina was slightly higher than in the previous quarter, it remains far below the levels seen in 2021 and earlier. This decline in semolina production suggests that the demand for whole wheat semolina may be facing challenges, perhaps due to consumer preferences shifting or increased competition from other types of semolina.
Implications for the Wheat Industry
The increase in whole wheat flour production, though modest, could reflect a slight recovery in consumer demand for whole wheat products, driven by health-conscious trends and increasing awareness of whole grain benefits. The growth in whole wheat flour’s share of total flour production—rising to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024 from 4.5% in 2023—suggests a consistent but cautious growth in this niche market.
However, the decline in semolina production indicates that the wheat industry is experiencing uneven demand across different product categories. As wheat farmers, agronomists, and agricultural engineers monitor these trends, they may need to adjust production strategies to meet changing consumer preferences, with particular attention to the balancing act between whole wheat flour and semolina production.
While US whole wheat flour production has edged upward, the data paints a mixed picture of the wheat industry’s current state. The modest increases in flour output suggest a stabilizing market for whole wheat flour, but production remains far below past peak levels, and the significant drop in semolina production indicates that some wheat products are facing reduced demand. For farmers, agronomists, and industry professionals, this presents both challenges and opportunities in adjusting strategies to respond to shifting market conditions and consumer preferences.
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