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Zeroed Out: What the December Export Duty Shift Means for Your Grain Strategy

by Tatiana Ivanova
11 December 2025
in Export, News
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Zeroed Out: What the December Export Duty Shift Means for Your Grain Strategy
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The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has confirmed that from *December 10th through December 16th, 2025, export duties on wheat, barley, and corn will be set at 0%. For wheat, this represents a drop from the previous week’s rate of 8.9 RUB per ton, while duties on barley and corn were already at zero. This adjustment stems directly from the country’s flexible grain damper mechanism, introduced in June 2021, which calculates weekly duties as 70% of the difference between a government-set base price and a market-driven indicative price.

The latest indicative prices, registered on the Moscow Exchange, are $226.1/ton for wheat, $213.6/ton for barley, and $208.5/ton for corn. These figures have fallen below the corresponding base prices (18,000 RUB/ton for wheat, 17,875 RUB/ton for barley and corn), triggering the automatic suspension of the duty. This precise mechanism demonstrates the system’s design: when global contract prices (in ruble equivalent) dip below the state’s defined thresholds, the export tax is eliminated to maintain the competitiveness of Russian grain on the world market.

Globally, this move coincides with a period of eased prices. Benchmark wheat futures on international exchanges have recently softened due to ample Northern Hemisphere supplies and competitive exports from other major origins. The Russian duty hitting zero is both a reflection of and a response to this international pressure, effectively lowering the final FOB cost of Russian wheat to maintain its market share. For agricultural scientists and engineers, this underscores the direct link between domestic policy, global price benchmarks, and the logistical chain from field to port.

The week of zero duties is more than a temporary tax break; it’s a clear market signal. It indicates that current global prices are squeezing margins to the point where the state’s damper mechanism has disengaged to support export flow. For farmers and farm owners, this period may present a slightly improved netback for uncontracted wheat, but it primarily confirms a challenging global pricing environment. For agronomists and planners, it reinforces the need for cost-optimized production strategies. The takeaway is that in an era of floating duties, understanding the underlying mechanics of indicative and base prices is now as crucial as understanding soil and weather for making informed business and cropping decisions.

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Tags: agricultural policybase priceexport competitivenessExport DutyGlobal Grain PricesGrain Damper Mechanismindicative priceRussian grain marketWheat Exportzero duty

Tatiana Ivanova

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