On June 19, 2024, the global grain market saw a variety of movements, with notable changes in the prices of wheat, corn and oilseeds. Here’s a detailed analysis of the latest market dynamics and production forecasts from around the world.
Market movements
Wheat prices fell on several major exchanges:
- The December 2024 Chicago wheat price fell 7.75 cents per boulevard to US623.25 cents per boulevard.
- December 2024 Kansas wheat prices fell 6.5 cents per boulevard to 627.75 cents per boulevard.
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat fell 6.5 cents/boulevard to 659.5 cents/boulevard.
- MATIF wheat fell in price by €1.25/t in December 2024 to €236.50/t.
In contrast, corn and oilseeds showed slight growth:
- December 2024 corn prices increased 4.75 cents per boulevard to 467.75 cents per boulevard.
- November 2024 soybeans rose 1.75 cents/boulevard to 1,132 cents/boulevard.
- November 2024 Winnipeg canola prices increased C$1.80 per tonne to C$626.10 per tonne.
- MATIF rapeseed in November 2024 increased in price by 3.25 euros/t to 470.25 euros/t.
On the Australian market:
- ASX January 2025 wheat fell A$8/t to $361/t.
- ASX January 2025 barley fell $18/t to $303.90/t.
- The Australian dollar strengthened 43 points to US$0.6656.
International production forecasts
Russia: Black Sea market analyst SovEcon predicts a decrease in grain production in Russia in 2024–2025 to 127.4 million tons, compared to 144.9 million tons in 2023–2024. This decline is explained by a decrease in yields and a reduction in cultivated areas, which is aggravated by weather anomalies.
Specifically:
- Wheat production is forecast at 80.7 million tons, a decline of 13%.
- Barley production is forecast at 18.6 million tons, up 12%.
- Corn production is expected to reach 14.6 million tons, also down 12%.
Brazil: According to Conab, as of June 16, 2024, the first corn harvest for 2023-2024 was 88% harvested, slightly higher than the previous year’s 87%. Secondary harvest (safrigna) was 13% complete, helped by dry weather, although this may have affected the yield potential of crops planted later. Positive yields were recorded in key states such as Goiás and Mato Grosso.
Wheat planting for 2024-25 was 56% complete, slightly behind last year’s 60%.
Ukraine: The European Commission’s MARS update indicates mixed weather conditions for winter crops in 2024-2025. Favorable conditions in April were offset by a rainfall deficit in May and a heat wave in June in eastern regions. Abandoned crops were noted in several areas, especially near the front line. Average returns are expected to be lower than last year and below the five-year average.
- The total wheat area is estimated at 5 million hectares, which is 17% less than last year.
- Wheat production is forecast at 20.6 million tons, a decrease of 25%.
- The area under winter barley is estimated at 0.8 million hectares, with production decreasing by 12% to 2.9 million tons.
Chinese import data
Chinese customs data for May showed significant changes in grain imports compared to May 2023:
- Corn imports amounted to 1.1 million tons, down 37%.
- Wheat imports increased to 1.9 million tons, an increase of 61%.
- Barley imports rose to 1.6 million tons, an increase of 26%.
- Imports of sorghum amounted to 670 thousand tons, an increase of 2%.
Australian Market and Weather Review
Local Australian markets remained quiet, with the January 2025 ASX wheat contract falling a further A$8/t to $361/t, reflecting trends in the offshore market. The upcoming 8-day rainfall forecast forecasts 5-15mm of rainfall across cropping regions in Western Australia, South Africa, Vic and southern NSW.
Recent fluctuations in the global grain market reflect broader trends in international production and the impact of weather conditions. As wheat prices have fallen, corn and oilseeds have risen, highlighting the complex interplay of market forces. Farmers, agronomists and agricultural engineers need to be aware of these dynamics to make strategic decisions in their operations.
Error
