Torrential Rains Impact Crop Conditions and Yield Prospects
As torrential rain continues to batter many parts of Europe this summer, winter and spring crop conditions in France, the European Union’s biggest grain exporter, are deteriorating rapidly. The term “catastrophic” has been used in the past week to describe this year’s harvest, with crop ratings at an eight-year low and farmers potentially facing the worst production outlook in at least a decade.
FranceAgriMer’s latest crop update rated the French soft wheat crop at just 50% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2016. This rating, unchanged from the previous week, is a significant drop from the 78% recorded at the same time last year. Durum wheat also saw a decline, with the crop rated at 58% good-to-excellent compared to 67% a year earlier. The winter and spring barley crops were rated 53% and 66% good-to-excellent, respectively, down from 80% and 73% in 2023.
Prolonged Wet Conditions
This spring was the nation’s fourth wettest on record, with rainfall 45% higher than the 10-year average and sunshine 20% below average, according to Meteo France. These conditions delayed crop development and crucial field activities, causing landslides and flooding in many farming areas. The continued unseasonably wet weather into summer has resulted in regular and prolonged harvest delays.
As of July 29, the soft wheat harvest was 67% completed, a significant jump from 41% the previous week but still behind the 86% recorded by the end of July last year. The durum wheat harvest was only 8% completed, down from 67% the previous week and 100% a year earlier. The winter and spring barley harvests were 99% and 54% complete, respectively, compared to 94% and 31% the previous week and 100% and 94% in the same week in 2023.
The General Association of Wheat Producers in France (AGPB) suggests at least a 15% drop in wheat output compared to 2023, potentially reaching a 28% reduction due to quality issues, which could result in a harvest of 26 million tonnes—the lowest in over a decade. Stratégie Grains and Moisson Live project slightly higher figures, estimating the soft wheat crop at 26.7 million tonnes and 26.4 million tonnes, respectively.
Quality Concerns
Grain quality is now the biggest concern, with widespread reports of poor protein levels and extremely low test weights. After the 2016 harvest disaster, France introduced new crop forecasting regimes and revised its wheat quality standards, including a minimum test weight of 76 kilograms per hectolitre (kg/hl) for milling wheat. This year, test weights in the 74-75 kg/hl range are common, potentially reducing the total output and the proportion of milling wheat. The average protein content of test-weight-compliant wheat is reportedly in the 11-11.5% range, slightly above the 11% minimum required for milling wheat futures.
Assuming 65% of the soft wheat harvest meets milling grade, which may be optimistic given the quality issues, this would yield just 16.9 million tonnes of milling wheat, compared to the recent low of 16.1 million tonnes in 2016. Consequently, wheat exports are expected to be less robust in 2024/25 compared to recent years.
Financial Impact
With potential income losses exceeding €1.6 billion, French farmers are calling for government financial aid, including compensation, tax relief, and loan repayment deferrals. They also seek the release of European Union crisis reserve funding. French Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau has announced exceptional measures to support farmers’ cash flow, potentially involving national and European levels, as well as actions by banks and insurance companies. However, no decision has yet been made regarding mobilizing the EU agricultural reserve.
The French harvest is under intense scrutiny by global trade and MATIF shorts, with milling wheat availability possibly at its lowest this century. Exporters are scrambling, and 2024/25 shipping volumes are already lagging behind last season and the five-year average. Many farmers are seeking domestic feed markets due to quality downgrades, and French milling wheat is trading at a premium to Russian-origin wheat. Managed-money short positions on MATIF appear excessive in the context of a shrinking crop environment.
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