Vietnam’s rice industry is experiencing renewed optimism in 2025, as favorable market signals, robust global demand, and a strong reputation for premium-quality rice are opening new export opportunities—even as overall export volume is expected to slightly decline compared to last year.
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), in the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam exported over 2.3 million tons of rice at an average price of $522 per ton. While this average is slightly lower than during the same period in 2024, it reflects a strong performance in a year marked by global price corrections and market volatility.
Leading in Price and Quality
Vietnam now leads the global market in rice export prices, surpassing Thailand and India. Key varieties such as:
- 5% broken white rice: $397–$410/ton
- Lightly aromatic long-grain rice: $520–$530/ton
- Premium segment rice (including specialty varieties like ST24 and ST25): up to $1,200/ton
This price leadership reflects a combination of strong branding, consistent quality, and strategic positioning in the upper-middle and premium segments of the global rice market.
Despite holding adequate stock to meet existing contracts, many Vietnamese exporters remain cautious about signing new deals. They are waiting for potential price increases of $10–$50/ton, encouraged by tight supplies and favorable seasonal timing. As noted by Do Ha Nam, Chairman of VFA, the “winter-spring harvest has ended, and the summer-autumn crop will not enter the market until July,” creating a gap that supports stronger pricing.
Export Potential and Market Expansion
Major rice exporters such as A An Food JSC are scaling up their operations—from 500,000 tons last year to a target of 700,000 tons in 2025. This aligns with national efforts to push high-quality rice exports to new and existing markets.
There is particular growth potential in high-income regions:
- Japan is experiencing a sustained rice price surge since late 2024, creating an opening for Vietnamese imports.
- In the U.S., Vietnamese rice exports currently stand at only 30,000 tons annually, and exports to Japan are even lower, highlighting untapped market potential.
- The EU market continues to favor aromatic and specialty rice due to rising consumer demand for traceability, sustainability, and high culinary standards.
Vietnam’s rice industry strategy focuses on quality improvement, branding, and value addition. These efforts aim to solidify Vietnam’s position in high-margin segments and reduce dependency on bulk low-grade exports, which are more vulnerable to price swings and trade barriers.
2025 Outlook
The VFA projects that total rice exports in 2025 could reach 7.5 million tons, a decrease from the record-breaking 9 million tons in 2024. However, if Vietnam increases the share of ST24, ST25, and aromatic rice in its exports, foreign exchange earnings could remain strong or even increase despite lower volumes.
Vietnam’s rice industry is evolving from a volume-based model to a value-driven one. By focusing on premium varieties, enhancing quality control, and strategically targeting affluent markets, Vietnam is well-positioned to maintain its competitiveness and even thrive amid global uncertainty. For producers, processors, and exporters, now is the time to invest in quality and differentiation to fully capture the market opportunities ahead.
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