In May, Ukraine exported over 2 million tons of corn, marking one of the highest monthly volumes in recent months. For June, at least 850,000 tons have already been contracted, with expectations that total exports will exceed 1 million tons, according to analysts from the PUSK Agricultural Cooperative, part of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
This sustained export activity suggests that traders are fulfilling previously signed contracts, keeping old-crop supplies moving. However, market conditions are becoming increasingly challenging due to price competition, particularly from the U.S.
Global Price Disparity Weakens Ukraine’s Competitive Edge
Currently, U.S. corn is priced at around $230/ton, while Ukrainian corn has risen to $256–260/ton, making it less attractive on the global stage. Analysts note that Ukrainian exports are now limited to smaller shipments (2,000–5,000 tons) to niche markets like Greece and Cyprus, whereas U.S. suppliers dominate with bulk shipments of 25,000 tons or more.
Shrinking Domestic Stocks Signal Tight Supply
Another key factor is Ukraine’s dwindling corn reserves, with only 1–1.5 million tons remaining on the domestic market. This scarcity limits large-scale export opportunities, further pressuring liquidity.
June Forecast: Lower Prices and Shift Toward New Harvest
PUSK analysts predict:
- Prices will decline to around $215/ton at Ukrainian ports.
- Demand will weaken significantly in the second half of June as buyers turn attention to the new crop season.
While Ukrainian corn exports remain robust in the short term, rising global competition and limited old-crop supplies will drive prices down in June. Farmers and traders should prepare for reduced liquidity and shifting market dynamics as focus transitions to the upcoming harvest.
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