Russia’s wheat production outlook for 2025 has received a boost as SovEcon, a leading agricultural market analysis firm, raised its forecast by 1.1 million metric tons (MMT) to a total of 79.7 MMT. The adjustment reflects the strong performance of winter wheat, whose production estimate was raised by 1.5 MMT, from 50.7 MMT to 52.2 MMT, thanks to higher yield expectations and reduced winter losses.
Winter Wheat Leads the Way
Winter wheat, which typically accounts for more than 65% of Russia’s total wheat output, has benefited from favorable weather during overwintering and robust crop establishment in key producing regions such as the Southern, Central, and North Caucasus federal districts. SovEcon analysts highlighted that improved winter survival rates and good early-season development have significantly raised the crop’s potential.
This contrasts with the spring wheat outlook, which has been downgraded by 400,000 tons to 27.5 MMT, due to anticipated reductions in planting area. While exact figures on the extent of the area cutback have not been disclosed, SovEcon indicated that soil moisture deficits across multiple regions are contributing to weaker sowing conditions compared to normal years.
According to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, many spring wheat zones, particularly in the Volga, Urals, and parts of Siberia, are reporting below-average soil moisture levels, which could delay planting and lower final yields unless conditions improve soon.
Perspective on Previous Years
Even with the upward revision, the 2025 wheat forecast remains below recent peaks:
- 2024 harvest: 82.6 MMT (record high)
- 2021 harvest: 76.0 MMT
- Five-year average (2020–2024): Approx. 78–80 MMT
This means that while 2025 could still be a solid production year, it is unlikely to match the exceptional result of 2024. However, the updated forecast remains well above domestic consumption needs, estimated at around 40–42 MMT, leaving ample room for continued strong exports.
Implications for Export and Pricing
Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter, accounting for over 20% of global wheat trade. Increased production forecasts may help stabilize or even lower global wheat prices, especially if other major producers like India, the U.S., and Australia also report favorable conditions.
Additionally, a larger harvest could support higher export volumes, helping Russia maintain its top position in markets like Egypt, Türkiye, and Bangladesh. The recent cut in Russia’s wheat export duty—now at 1,832 rubles per ton as of April 23—may further enhance its competitiveness on the global stage.
SovEcon’s revised 2025 wheat forecast reflects the strength of Russia’s winter wheat crop and its resilience through the winter months. While concerns remain for spring wheat due to drier-than-normal conditions and reduced sowing areas, the overall harvest outlook remains strong. For global buyers and Russian producers alike, the season ahead will depend heavily on weather developments in the next two months and how spring wheat performs under current constraints.
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