Lower Estimates and Uncertain Rainfall Threaten Crop Yields
South Australia’s grain production forecast for the 2024-25 season has been revised down to 7.7 million tonnes (Mt), according to the latest report from the Department of Primary Industries and Regions SA (PIRSA). This figure, released last week in the PIRSA Crop and Pasture Report: 2024–25 Crop Emergence, represents a decrease of 850,000 tonnes from the department’s initial estimate in May.
The revised estimate is also 600,000 tonnes lower than the 8.3 million tonnes forecasted by ABARES in its June quarterly Australian Crop Report. This reduction indicates that South Australia’s winter crop production is expected to be 12 percent lower compared to the 2023-24 season and slightly below the five-year average.
PIRSA notes that the potential yield for this season heavily relies on the spring rainfall, which has been deficient across many parts of South Australia early in the winter. Regions such as the Lower and Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Central Hills, and Fleurieu have received more favorable rainfall and are expected to achieve near-average production.
Seeding has been completed statewide, but the lack of rain has led to delayed and uneven crop emergence, raising concerns among producers. Despite a 62 percent increase in the area sown to lentils, the forecasted production value remains similar to last season due to limitations in yield potential. Similarly, the production of faba beans is anticipated to be 29 percent lower than the previous year due to dry conditions, despite unchanged sown areas.
Wheat production is expected to decrease by 6 percent from last season, driven by a reduction in the cropped area and adjustments to crop mix. The area sown to hay is likely to remain steady, reflecting the high demand for supplementary feed.
The total cropped area has slightly diminished, particularly in the Western Eyre Peninsula and Lower Murray regions, due to the prolonged dry conditions. The forecast for August to October is relatively neutral, with an equal chance of rainfall being above or below average. However, with crops emerging later than usual, there is an increased risk of heat stress during flowering and grain filling, which could further impact production.
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