According to the latest data from Rosstat, Russia’s national statistics agency, wheat reserves held by agricultural enterprises as of April 1, 2025, have dropped sharply to 9.776 million metric tons (MMT) — down from 14.582 MMT a year earlier. This represents a 33% year-over-year decline and marks one of the lowest early spring wheat stock levels in recent years.
This significant drop follows a strong wheat export season in 2024, when Russia harvested 82.6 MMT and exported an estimated 52–54 MMT, according to figures from the Russian Grain Union. The result has been tightened domestic inventories, especially as demand for high-protein wheat and milling-quality grain has remained robust both domestically and internationally.
Grain and Legume Stocks Also in Decline
Wheat is not the only crop experiencing reduced reserves:
- Corn stocks fell slightly by 0.9%, from 2.283 MMT to 2.262 MMT.
- As of September 1, 2024, total grain and legume reserves (including corn) stood at 17.094 MMT, down 26.2% compared to 23.169 MMT a year earlier.
These figures suggest a general drawdown in grain inventories across major crops, which can reflect:
- Higher export volumes
- Stable or growing domestic consumption
- Logistical delays in replenishing stocks during the off-season
Oilseeds Offer Some Relief
In contrast to cereals, oilseed reserves showed modest growth. As of April 1, 2025, stocks of crops such as sunflower and rapeseed reached 3.132 MMT, up 1.1% from 3.098 MMT in 2024. This may reflect increased oilseed planting, strong yields, or delayed processing and sales during the post-harvest period.
With growing international demand for vegetable oils and plant-based protein, oilseed cultivation has become increasingly profitable. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, oilseed acreage in 2024 expanded by more than 4%, contributing to better inventory stability in that segment.
Market Implications and Farmer Outlook
The decline in wheat stocks could have several short- and long-term implications:
- Price Volatility: Tighter reserves may contribute to higher domestic wheat prices, especially if the upcoming 2025 harvest underperforms due to drought or disease pressure.
- Export Strategy: The Russian government may review its grain export policy, particularly if reserves drop below minimum thresholds required for food security.
- Storage and Logistics: Reduced stocks may also reflect logistical bottlenecks, particularly in regions where railway or port capacity is prioritized for export over domestic movement.
Farmers are advised to monitor not only market prices but also government interventions, such as floating export duties, which were recently reduced (e.g., wheat export duty cut to 1,832 rubles/ton as of April 23) to ensure Russia’s global competitiveness.
The sharp drop in Russia’s wheat reserves highlights the balancing act between export-driven growth and domestic food security. For farmers, agronomists, and supply chain planners, the data serves as a reminder to stay agile — adapting to market dynamics, storage infrastructure needs, and potential shifts in state grain policy. While oilseeds provide a bright spot, continued vigilance is essential as the 2025 crop cycle progresses.
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