Russia’s Wheat Exports Defy Projections in April 2024
Recent data from Rusagrotrans reveals that Russia exported 2.3 million tons of wheat in April 2024, surpassing earlier estimates of 1.9 million tons. This unexpected growth was fueled by increased demand from Turkey (355,000 tons, up 2.3x from March) and Iran (270,000 tons, up 1.9x), which became the top importers of Russian wheat for the month. Meanwhile, Egypt—traditionally the largest buyer—imported 272,000 tons, a decline from March’s 345,000 tons.
Comparative Export Trends
Analysts from SovEcon had projected April exports at 2.2 million tons, significantly lower than the 5 million tons shipped in April 2023 and the five-year average of 3.5 million tons for the month. The Russian Grain Union’s forecast was even more conservative at 1.92 million tons, making the actual figures a notable deviation.
Seasonal Performance (July 2024 – April 2025)
Cumulatively, Russia has exported 38.6 million tons of wheat this season (including EAEU countries), with the top buyers being:
- Egypt – 7.86 million tons (vs. 6.85 million tons last season)
- Turkey – 2.9 million tons (down from over 6 million tons in 2023/24)
- Bangladesh – 2.55 million tons (vs. 3.39 million tons)
- Algeria – 1.68 million tons (vs. 1.9 million tons)
- Nigeria – 1.48 million tons (a sharp rise from 405,000 tons)
Outlook for May and Full Season 2024/25
Rusagrotrans predicts May exports at 1.9 million tons, bringing the total seasonal export estimate to 42.2 million tons—the third-highest on record, following 55.5 million tons in 2023/24 and 49.3 million tons in 2022/23.
Despite geopolitical and logistical challenges, Russia remains a dominant force in global wheat trade. The shift in demand toward Turkey and Iran, alongside Egypt’s reduced imports, suggests evolving market dynamics. With global food security concerns persisting, Russia’s export performance will continue to shape pricing and trade flows in the coming months.
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