In June 2024, Russia exported just 1.12 million tons (Mt) of wheat, a staggering fourfold decrease from the same period in 2023, according to the Russian Grain Union (RZS). Preliminary data for the 2024/25 season shows total grain exports fell by nearly 30%, reaching 46.5 Mt, with wheat shipments down 28% (41.5 Mt).
Export Quota Utilization and Key Buyers
The wheat export quota of 10.6 Mt, in effect from February 15 to June 30, was 83% utilized, with 8.8 Mt shipped to 38 countries. Leading importers included:
- Egypt (1.7 Mt)
- Turkey (1.13 Mt)
- Iran (802,000 t)
- Israel (554,000 t)
- Sudan (539,000 t)
Analysts from ProZerno had initially projected only 75% quota fulfillment, suggesting stronger-than-expected late-season demand.
Shifting Trade Patterns in June
Compared to June 2023, Russian wheat reached just 16 countries (vs. 49 previously). Key changes:
- Egypt (largest buyer, but imports down 4.7x to 254,000 t)
- Turkey (purchases down 3.3x to 137,000 t)
- Algeria (imports down 14x to 33,000 t)
- Bangladesh (down 2.8x to 55,000 t)
However, exports grew significantly to:
- Israel (+44%, 104,000 t)
- Djibouti (+43.5%, 69,000 t)
- Sri Lanka (nearly doubled, 56,500 t)
Price Dynamics and Global Competition
Elena Tyurina, RZS’s Head of Analytics, cited rising domestic prices (up 14% from $172/t to $196/t) and reduced export potential as key factors. Despite this, Russian wheat FOB Novorossiysk remained stable at $236/t, while:
- European wheat fell from $237/t to $230/t
- U.S. wheat dropped from $224/t to $217/t
The annual average prices were:
- EU wheat: $239/t
- U.S. wheat: $232/t
- Russian wheat: $234/t
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
The dramatic decline in Russian wheat exports reflects logistical constraints, quota policies, and competitive global pricing. While traditional buyers reduced imports, emerging markets like Israel and Djibouti showed growth. Farmers and traders must adapt to volatile demand, monitor price trends, and explore new markets to mitigate risks in the coming season.
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