Russia’s Wheat Supremacy Continues in 2025/26
The latest USDA projections for the 2025/26 agricultural season (July 2025 – June 2026) confirm Russia’s dominance in the global wheat market. With an estimated production of 83 million metric tons (MMT) and exports projected at 45 MMT, Russia remains the undisputed leader, far outpacing the European Union, which is expected to export 34 MMT of wheat.
For the current 2024/25 season (ending June 2025), Russia’s wheat production is estimated at 81.6 MMT, with exports reaching 43.5 MMT. These figures highlight the country’s consistent growth in grain output, driven by favorable weather conditions, improved agronomic practices, and expanded acreage.
Strong Performance in Feed Grains and Corn
Beyond wheat, Russia is also increasing production of other key crops:
- Feed grains: Expected to rise to 37.73 MMT (up from 34.78 MMT in 2024/25), with exports reaching 7.58 MMT.
- Corn: Forecast at 15 MMT (up from 14 MMT), with exports projected at 3.6 MMT.
These increases suggest that Russia is not only consolidating its position in wheat but also strengthening its role in global feed and corn markets.
Global Grain Market Outlook
The USDA’s global projections for 2025/26 include:
- Wheat: 808.52 MMT
- Feed grains: 1.55 billion metric tons
- Corn: 1.26 billion metric tons
Notably, the USDA’s estimates do not include data from Crimea or newly incorporated territories, meaning Russia’s actual output could be even higher.
Challenges and Opportunities for Farmers & Agribusinesses
While Russia’s dominance presents competitive challenges for other major exporters (such as the EU, U.S., and Ukraine), it also underscores the importance of:
- Market diversification for import-dependent nations.
- Investment in yield-boosting technologies (precision agriculture, drought-resistant varieties).
- Logistical improvements to handle rising export volumes efficiently.
Russia’s agricultural sector continues to expand, reinforcing its role as a key player in global grain markets. Farmers, traders, and policymakers must adapt to these shifting dynamics, leveraging innovation and strategic planning to remain competitive.
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