Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter in recent years, is expected to export 40.7 million tonnes of wheat in the 2024/25 season, down 1.5 million tonnes from the previous forecast, according to the latest report by SovEcon, a leading Russian agricultural consultancy. This new figure falls below the five-year average of 40.9 million tonnes, and well below the 52.4 million tonnes exported in the previous season.
As of the end of February 2025, 32.6 million tonnes of wheat had been shipped abroad, compared to 33.8 million tonnes at the same time last year. Exports in February alone dropped to 1.9 million tonnes, significantly less than 2.3 million tonnes last year and the five-year February average of 4.1 million tonnes.
One of the main reasons behind the slowdown is the deteriorating profitability of exports. Export margins, which were previously around $5–10 per tonne in autumn, have turned negative since late 2024, SovEcon analysts report. Adding to the pressure is a significant drop in wheat stocks—11.6 million tonnes as of March 1, which is 34% lower than the previous year and 9% below the five-year average.
Currency volatility is further complicating trade. The strengthening of the Russian ruble over the past two months has made exports less competitive. Since the export duty is calculated with a time lag, the stronger ruble reduces returns for exporters. For example, the export duty for March 26 to April 1 dropped to 1,846.7 rubles/tonne, down from 2,403 rubles the previous week, reflecting the shifting market environment.
Despite the current challenges, SovEcon increased its forecast for the upcoming 2025/26 season slightly from 38.9 to 39.1 million tonnes, citing higher beginning stocks and potential recovery in export activity if global demand continues to rise and the ruble weakens.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russia accounted for roughly 23% of global wheat exports in 2023, maintaining its dominance in the international market. However, increased competition from Australia, the European Union, and Argentina, along with shifting currency values and domestic constraints, could reshape trade flows in the near future.
Russia’s wheat export outlook for the 2024/25 season reflects a complex interplay of market dynamics, with lower domestic supplies, currency pressures, and shrinking margins making trade more difficult. While global demand remains strong, particularly from the Middle East and Africa, the current environment demands strategic decisions from exporters and policymakers alike. Whether Russia maintains its edge in global wheat trade will depend on how effectively it can adapt to evolving financial and logistical challenges.
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