Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content have continued to decline in July, with a $10 drop to $222 per ton (FOB) over the past week, as reported by the analytical center Rusagrotrans. In comparison, French wheat prices dropped by $1 to $238 per ton, American wheat by $7 to $222 per ton, and German wheat prices remained steady at $244 per ton.
Price Trends and Market Analysis
In deep-water ports, the price of fourth-class wheat (12.5% protein) stands at 16,500 rubles per ton (excluding VAT), marking a 250-ruble decrease from the previous week. Conversely, prices in shallow water ports have increased by 300 rubles, reaching 13,500-14,000 rubles per ton. A year ago, prices were 15,000 rubles per ton in deep water and 13,500 rubles in shallow water.
The internal wheat market has shown mixed results over the past week. Prices in the southern regions rose by 250 rubles to 13,600-14,300 rubles per ton, while prices in the Volga region dropped by 650 rubles to 13,000-13,900 rubles per ton. In Central Russia, prices remained stable at 14,600-15,000 rubles per ton, driven by demand from processing enterprises. In Siberia, prices increased by 400 rubles on average, reaching 11,800-12,700 rubles per ton.
Record Export Volumes and Global Market Share
Preliminary data from the analytical center indicates that Russia exported 55.4 million tons of wheat in the agricultural year from July 2023 to June 2024. This substantial export volume has increased Russia’s share of the global wheat market to nearly 28%, up from 25% the previous year.
Global Market Implications
The fluctuation in wheat prices is influenced by various factors, including global demand, geopolitical tensions, and internal production costs. The price drop in Russian wheat contrasts with the generally stable or slightly declining prices of wheat from other major exporters like France, the USA, and Germany. This price movement may affect the competitive landscape of the global wheat market, potentially making Russian wheat more attractive despite the logistical and quality challenges that come with such fluctuations.
The continuous decline in Russian wheat export prices, despite the record export volumes, presents a complex scenario for farmers, agronomists, and agricultural engineers. It highlights the need for strategic planning and adaptability in the face of market volatility. Monitoring these trends closely will be crucial for stakeholders to optimize their production and export strategies.
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