Starting July 2, 2024, Russia’s wheat export duty will drop 4.4 times, from 248.3 rubles to just 56.3 rubles per ton, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. This marks the lowest rate since the grain damper mechanism was introduced in June 2021. Meanwhile, the duty on corn will nearly triple, rising from 358.1 to 931.6 rubles per ton, while barley remains exempt at zero duty.
Key Factors Behind the Shift
The new duties are calculated based on indicative prices:
- Wheat: $230.7/ton (down from $233.2)
- Barley: $195.8/ton (down from $197.4)
- Corn: $232.3/ton (up from $220.9)
The grain damper system, introduced in 2021, adjusts export duties weekly based on contract prices registered on the Moscow Exchange. The duty equals 70% of the difference between the base price and the indicative price. Recently, the base price for wheat increased to 18,000 rubles/ton (up from 17,000 in 2023), while barley and corn rose to 16,875 rubles/ton.
Global Market Implications
Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, shipped 47-50 million tons in 2023/24 (USDA). Lower export duties could boost Russian wheat competitiveness, potentially pressuring global prices. Meanwhile, higher corn duties may reduce Russian exports, tightening supply in some markets.
Error
