Pakistan’s wheat production for the Rabi Season 2024-25 has fallen 10% short of its target, sparking concerns across the agricultural sector. Despite challenges, some crops like onions, tomatoes, and potatoes are showing resilience. This article explores the latest production data, rainfall trends, and future agricultural targets to help farmers, agronomists, and industry experts prepare for the road ahead.
Pakistan’s Wheat Shortfall Signals Alarming Trends for 2024-25: What Farmers and Experts Need to Know
Pakistan’s wheat production during the Rabi Season 2024-2025 has faced a significant setback, with output estimated at 28.42 million tons, well below the target of 33.58 million tons. This 10% decline, based on cultivation over 9.1 million hectares instead of the planned 10.368 million hectares, raises serious concerns for national food security, farmer incomes, and supply chains.
According to the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), chaired by Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research, Rana Tanveer Hussain, while wheat yields have suffered, other crops have shown remarkable resilience. Onion production, for instance, is projected at 2.7 million tons, marking a 15.7% increase even though cultivated area shrank by 17.3%. Tomatoes and potatoes also posted an 8.8% growth each, reaching 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares.
Multiple factors contributed to the wheat shortfall. One of the key drivers was reduced rainfall — the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) reported a 39% deficit in precipitation between January and April 2025, with a particularly sharp 60% shortfall in April, notably impacting southern provinces like Sindh and Balochistan. Water stress during critical growth stages, coupled with rising input costs and shifts in farmer crop choices, has compounded the pressure on wheat production.
Comparative analysis with international data shows that Pakistan is not alone. Global wheat production in 2024 is forecasted to slightly decrease, with the International Grains Council (IGC) predicting a 1% drop compared to 2023, largely due to adverse weather conditions in major producers like Australia and parts of Europe. However, Pakistan’s 10% decline is significantly steeper, underlining the country’s vulnerability to climatic variability and infrastructure challenges.
Looking ahead, the FCA has set ambitious targets for the 2025-26 Kharif season:
- Cotton: 10.18 million bales from 2.2 million hectares
- Rice: 9.17 million tons from over 3 million hectares
- Sugarcane: 80.3 million tons from 1.1 million hectares
- Maize: 9.7 million tons from 1.5 million hectares
The PMD has forecast above-normal rainfall from May to July 2025, which may bring relief if it arrives in time and is well-distributed. However, temperatures are expected to remain above average, posing new risks such as heat stress and pest outbreaks.
The 10% decline in Pakistan’s wheat production for the Rabi Season 2024-25 serves as a wake-up call for the agricultural sector. While certain crops like onions, tomatoes, and potatoes show resilience, the wheat shortfall highlights the urgent need for better water management, climate-resilient crop strategies, and infrastructural support. With careful planning and adaptation, farmers and agricultural stakeholders can navigate the upcoming challenges, turning risks into opportunities for more sustainable growth.
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