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Navigating the Grain Export Bottleneck: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Russia’s Domestic Fleet Ambitions

by Tatiana Ivanova
20 August 2025
in Export, News
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Navigating the Grain Export Bottleneck: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Russia’s Domestic Fleet Ambitions
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For stakeholders in the Russian agricultural sector—from farm owners to scientists optimizing yields—efficient and cost-effective logistics are the final, critical link in the supply chain. The ability to get produce to international markets reliably and affordably directly impacts profitability and global competitiveness. A recent initiative to address this by creating a dedicated fleet of grain carriers has revealed a significant financial hurdle, sparking a necessary debate on strategic investment versus pragmatic procurement.

As reported, following a meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture in August, Rosagroleasing and the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) have aligned on a plan to construct a fleet of bulk carriers for grain exports. The demand, as outlined by exporters, is substantial: 61 new vessels, comprising 27 Handysize (40,000 DWT) and 34 larger Supramax (60,000 DWT) class ships.

However, the cost estimates from USC for domestic construction are staggering. Building the lead ship of each class in Russia is projected to cost RUB 13.9 billion (Handysize) and RUB 16.5 billion (Supramax), with series production reducing costs to RUB 12.5 billion and RUB 14.6 billion respectively. These figures are contingent on significant government support and costly shipyard modernizations.

The most striking data point is the comparison to international prices. The same vessels can be built in China for approximately RUB 3.5 billion and RUB 4.2 billion, respectively. This represents a premium of nearly 400% for domestic construction. Furthermore, the timeline for the first Russian-built lead ship is a minimum of 2.5 years, compared to a Chinese partner’s offer of 1 to 1.5 years for the first vessels.

The proposed compromise involves a hybrid approach: an initial batch of ten bulk carriers built entirely at a foreign shipyard, followed by a second batch of 51 ships built on Russian hulls with foreign-supplied equipment. This seeks to balance immediate logistical needs with long-term industrial policy goals of developing sovereign shipbuilding capacity.

This situation is not unique to Russia. Globally, nations grapple with the balance between protecting strategic industries and embracing cost-efficient globalization. According to recent analyses from maritime trade publications like TradeWinds and Lloyd’s List, shipbuilding costs in East Asia, particularly in China and South Korea, remain highly competitive due to economies of scale, established supply chains, and state support. The price differential highlighted in the Russian case aligns with broader global trends where specialized, high-volume yards offer significantly lower prices.

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Tags: agricultural competitivenessagricultural shipping costsbulk carrier fleetdomestic shipbuildingExport Infrastructurefreight economicsGrain Export LogisticsRosagroleasingSupply Chain ManagementUnited Shipbuilding Corporation (USC)

Tatiana Ivanova

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