Kazakhstan’s Barley Exports Surpass Wheat in Value
Recent data reveals an unusual trend in Kazakhstan’s grain market—barley is now being exported at higher prices than wheat. While global wheat prices have sharply declined, domestic and regional demand dynamics are reshaping trade flows, offering new opportunities for farmers and agribusinesses.
Global Wheat Prices Decline, but Kazakhstan’s Market Remains Stable
Last week, U.S. wheat futures (July contract) dropped from 5.4438perbushel(5.4438perbushel(200/ton) on May 7 to 5.2175perbushel(5.2175perbushel(191/ton) by May 9. This decline is attributed to optimistic U.S. crop reports, timely sowing, and strong export volumes.
In contrast, Kazakhstan’s domestic wheat prices have remained stable due to low farmer supply and the regulatory influence of the State Food Corporation (ProdCorporation). Earlier concerns that ProdCorporation’s wheat sales would depress prices proved unfounded, as trading on the Eurasian Trading System (ETS) has maintained strong levels, preventing price dumping.
Domestic and Export Price Trends
- Domestic EXW prices (with VAT):
- 3rd class wheat (23% gluten): 92,000 KZT/ton (~$200)
- 4th class wheat: 87,000 KZT/ton (~$189)
- Export prices to Kyrgyzstan (DAP TurkSib):
- 3rd class wheat: $215/ton (111,000 KZT)
- 5th class wheat: $136/ton (70,000 KZT)
- Central Asian exports (DAP Saryagash, May 5-6):
- 4th class wheat: $202/ton (103,706 KZT)
Barley Prices Surge Due to High Demand
The most striking development is barley’s export price reaching $221/ton (114,000 KZT), surpassing wheat. This is driven by:
- Strong feed demand from livestock and poultry sectors.
- Low carryover stocks of fodder grains.
- Competitive export positioning in regional markets.
What Farmers and Traders Should Watch
Kazakhstan’s grain market is experiencing a rare scenario where barley commands a premium over wheat. For farmers, this signals a potential shift in planting strategies—prioritizing barley could yield better returns. Agronomists and traders should monitor global wheat trends while capitalizing on regional feed grain demand.
As global wheat supply rebounds, domestic stability in Kazakhstan will hinge on ProdCorporation’s interventions and export dynamics. Meanwhile, barley’s strong performance highlights opportunities in livestock feed markets, making it a crop to watch in 2024.
Error
