India Eyes Record-Breaking Wheat Harvest in 2024-25: Will It Outpace All Expectations?
India’s wheat sector is brimming with optimism this Rabi season as agricultural experts and government officials predict a potential wheat output exceeding the already record estimate of 115.3 million metric tonnes (MT). According to the second advance estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture, this marks a 2% increase over last year’s production, with the wheat sown area reaching an unprecedented 32 million hectares (Mha) — higher than both last year’s 31.56 Mha and the five-year average.
Despite some concerns over higher-than-normal day temperatures in key wheat-growing regions, cooler night temperatures and absence of yellow rust disease have supported healthy crop development and strong grain formation. Dr. Ratan Tiwari, Director at the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR), confirmed that the crop’s condition remains excellent and may yield better-than-expected results.
The harvest has already begun in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh, while Punjab and Haryana are expected to begin harvesting by mid-April. Wheat arrivals in early-harvest states have been robust and of high quality, according to millers and procurement agencies.
Procurement Picks Up Speed
The 2025-26 wheat marketing season (April–June) is off to a brisk start, with over 0.8 million MT of wheat already procured in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat — a sharp rise from 0.2 million MT during the same time last year. The government has set a procurement target of 31 million MT, broken down as follows:
- Punjab: 12.4 million MT
- Haryana: 7.5 million MT
- Madhya Pradesh: 6 million MT
- Uttar Pradesh: 3 million MT
- Rajasthan: 2 million MT
- Gujarat: 0.1 million MT
The Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat remains at ₹2,425 per quintal, and to incentivize farmers further, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan governments have announced bonus payments of ₹175/quintal and ₹150/quintal respectively.
Currently, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) holds 12 million MT of wheat in stock, significantly above the buffer norm of 7.46 million MT for April 1. This stock, coupled with a record procurement target, should secure sufficient grain supply for public distribution, especially the 18.4 million MT required annually under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) — the central government’s free ration program.
Outlook for Prices and Domestic Use
Domestic wheat consumption, including for seeds and processing, is estimated at 102–103 million MT annually. With supply expected to exceed this demand, market prices are projected to remain stable, providing relief to consumers and processors while ensuring fair returns for farmers.
Navneet Chitlangia, President of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, emphasized that favorable arrivals and strong output will contribute to price stability and better-quality grain availability throughout the season.
India’s wheat production in the 2024-25 season is not just about numbers — it reflects the resilience and efficiency of the country’s farming sector. With strategic planning, proactive procurement, and favorable climatic conditions, the nation stands on the verge of achieving a historic harvest. The focus now shifts to ensuring smooth procurement and fair distribution so that both producers and consumers benefit from this agricultural success story.
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