Key Developments in Grain Markets and International Trade Trends as of September 5, 2024
The global grain market has experienced notable fluctuations as of September 5, 2024, with wheat prices showing firmness while canola prices have declined. This shift reflects broader trends in international trade and production.
In the U.S. markets, December 2024 wheat futures have risen, with Chicago wheat up 14 cents per bushel to 580.75 cents/bu, Kansas wheat increasing by 16.75 cents/bu to 593 cents/bu, and Minneapolis wheat gaining 16.25 cents/bu to 623.5 cents/bu. Conversely, canola prices have fallen, with Winnipeg’s November 2024 contract dropping C$11.20 per tonne to C$579.70/t. In Europe, MATIF wheat for December 2024 is up €1.25/t to €220.50/t, while MATIF rapeseed for November 2024 is down €3.25/t to €466.50/t.
In Australia, the ASX January 2025 wheat and barley contracts have both increased by A$5/t, with wheat at A$325/t and barley at A$270/t. The Australian dollar has risen slightly to US$0.6725.
Internationally, Ukraine has reported a significant increase in grain exports for the 2024-25 season, with cumulative exports reaching 7.2 million tonnes by September 4. This includes 3.8 million tonnes of wheat, 2.3 million tonnes of corn, and 1.1 million tonnes of barley. In a noteworthy development, India has shifted to becoming a net importer of corn due to a government push for increased corn-based ethanol production, which has strained local supply chains and impacted global markets.
The USDA’s July report reveals a rise in soybean crush to 5.8 million tonnes, up from 5.5 million tonnes in June and the same month last year. Canola crush also increased to 230,516 tonnes from 196,212 tonnes in June and 209,247 tonnes in July 2023. Brazil’s grain exporter association ANEC forecasts September soybean exports at 5.6 million tonnes and maize at 6 million tonnes, with total soybean exports for 2024 expected to reach 99 million tonnes.
In Asia, Thai importers have issued a tender for 120,000 tonnes of feed wheat, while South Korea’s NOFI has accepted the lowest bid of US$265.73/t for 60,000 tonnes of feed wheat. Taiwan has purchased 101,700 tonnes of milling wheat from the U.S., and Jordan’s state grain buyer has acquired 60,000 tonnes of feed barley at $222/t c&f for October shipment.
In Australia, new crop cereal prices in Western Australia have risen by A$3/t, with new wheat prices at A$350/t FIS and barley at A$305/t FIS. However, canola bids have eased slightly to $755/t FIS. In Eastern Australia, wheat bids have increased by around $6/t to about $335/t, while canola and barley prices have remained stable.
The 8-day weather forecast shows promising rain for cropping regions in South Australia, western Victoria, and southern New South Wales, which is crucial for upcoming harvests. The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest Climate Driver Update indicates that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with a possibility of a La Niña developing in the coming months, which could influence future weather patterns and market conditions.
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