Preliminary data from France’s 2025 soft wheat harvest is sending mixed signals to the global market, highlighting the complex interplay between agronomy and end-use quality. Interim results published by FranceAgriMer and the ARVALIS institute paint a picture of a crop with outstanding technical characteristics but a startling deficiency in a key market parameter: protein content.
The most alarming figure for millers and exporters is the dramatic drop in protein. The data shows that only 69% of the sampled wheat achieved a protein content of at least 11%. This is a severe decline compared to the five-year average of 83%, representing a significant portion of the harvest that may fail to meet the specifications for standard bread-making quality. This decline is likely attributable to a combination of factors prevalent during the growing season, such as high rainfall during grain filling, which can dilute nitrogen content, or reduced nitrogen fertilizer application due to economic or environmental pressures.
However, the news is not all negative. The same harvest excels in other critical quality parameters. The specific weight—a measure of grain plumpness and milling yield—is exceptionally high, with 94% of the harvest achieving over 76 kg/hl, far surpassing the five-year average of 62%. Furthermore, the Hagberg falling number—an indicator of pre-harvest sprouting and alpha-amylase activity—is also excellent. A remarkable 98% of samples recorded a falling number above 250 seconds, compared to an already strong five-year average of 83%.
This divergence creates a unique market scenario. The high specific weight indicates good overall grain fill and high extractable flour yield, which is positive for millers. The superb falling number confirms the harvest was gathered in good condition with minimal sprouting damage, ensuring good baking functionality from an enzymatic perspective. However, the critically low protein content remains a fundamental hurdle for producing high-quality bread flour without blending with higher-protein wheat.
This situation mirrors challenges seen in other European regions following wet harvest periods but appears more pronounced in France this season. It underscores a growing challenge in wheat production: balancing yield and environmental goals with end-use quality requirements in the face of increasingly volatile weather patterns.
The 2025 French wheat harvest presents a paradox of high technical quality undermined by low protein. While the excellent specific weight and falling number are commendable achievements from an agronomic standpoint, the collapse in protein content will have significant commercial ramifications. This crop will likely be relegated to domestic use, biscuit production, or animal feed, increasing import demand for high-protein blending wheat from other origins and potentially creating a two-tier market. For farmers, this highlights the ongoing challenge of consistently achieving protein targets amidst economic and environmental constraints. It emphasizes the need for continued research into nitrogen-use-efficient varieties and precision agronomy practices that can help stabilize protein levels from year to year, ensuring that high yields do not come at the cost of marketability.
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