Initial forecasts for Russia’s 2025 grain harvest mirror the 2024 figures. However, experts express concerns that actual yields may fall short due to issues with winter crops affected by autumn droughts and a shift in sowing areas from grains to more profitable crops.
As of December 9, 2024, regional agricultural authorities reported that 98% of grain and leguminous crops had been harvested, totaling 128.8 million metric tons, including 84.6 million metric tons of wheat. This represents a 13.3% decrease compared to the previous year. The Ministry of Agriculture’s year-end forecast stands at 130 million metric tons of grain, with 83 million metric tons of wheat. Similarly, the Ruseed Analytical Center projects 130 million metric tons, accounting for new territories. Final data is expected by the end of January.
The grain harvest decline in 2024 is attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced sowing areas. Experts warn that these factors may also negatively impact the 2025 harvest. The 2024 season faced severe weather challenges, including summer droughts and spring frosts, marking the most difficult conditions for farmers in a decade. Interim harvest volumes in 2024 lag behind the previous year, primarily due to these weather adversities, which have also slowed harvesting operations. Notably, the quality of the harvested grain has improved, with nearly one-third of the wheat classified as third or fourth grade.
Projections for 2025 remain concerning. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has revised its overall forecast for Russia’s 2025 grain crop to 129 million metric tons, down from the previous estimate of 130 million metric tons. SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, maintains its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production at 78.7 million metric tons, a decrease from 82.4 million metric tons in the previous year. These projections are contingent upon favorable weather conditions; otherwise, forecasts may be adjusted downward.
The condition of winter crops is a significant concern. Data from the state weather forecasting agency indicated that over 37% of winter crops were in poor condition or had not sprouted due to low moisture levels. This situation is particularly pronounced in the Central and Southern Federal Districts. If winter crops do not recover, farmers may need to replant with spring crops, potentially opting for more profitable alternatives like oilseeds. While the situation with winter crop sowing for the 2025 harvest is challenging, it is not deemed critical.
The 2024 autumn sowing campaign occurred within agronomically optimal periods but under difficult weather conditions. By late November, 90% of winter wheat and 85% of winter barley had emerged. Soil moisture reserves varied across regions, ranging from 30% to 88% of optimal levels. Given that most winter crops are in the early emergence phase, accurately assessing their condition is challenging. A warm, snowy winter could mitigate risks to the upcoming harvest.
Another factor potentially impacting the future harvest is the reduction in grain sowing areas. This trend is not solely due to the poor condition of winter crops; farmers are increasingly favoring more profitable crops over grains. To maintain production profitability, agricultural producers may expand the cultivation of higher-margin oilseeds, despite import restrictions on high-yielding seeds. The share of oilseeds in the sowing structure has increased from 16% to 21% over the past four years, while the share of grains has decreased to 47.5% from 51%.
Russia’s 2025 grain harvest faces significant uncertainties due to adverse weather conditions affecting winter crops and a strategic shift by farmers toward more profitable crops. These factors could lead to a grain shortfall, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies in the agricultural sector to mitigate potential risks.
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