This season, barley could reach price parity with wheat—a rare occurrence—according to Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical firm ProZerno, speaking at the Baltic Grain Assembly. As of early July, barley prices stood at $197-198 per ton (FOB), close to wheat’s $226 per ton.
Key Factors Driving Barley’s Rise
- Reduced Spring Crop Plantings
- Russia’s spring crop area for 2025 is 1.8 million hectares smaller than last year, with declines in the European part, Urals, and Siberia.
- Total grain production (excluding new regions) is projected at 130.4 million tons, including 83 million tons of wheat.
- Barley Production Surge
- Barley output is expected to rise by over 1 million tons, reaching 17.4 million tons.
- Corn production is forecast at 14.7 million tons, while grain legumes hit a record 7 million tons—up 1.7 million tons from 2024.
- Export and Domestic Demand Trends
- Russia’s 2024/25 grain exports were capped by quotas, falling short of the 50+ million ton potential.
- Domestic grain consumption dropped by 1.8 million tons to 83.2 million tons, partly due to lower livestock feed demand.
Global Market Influences
- Buyer’s Market Dominates: High global production forecasts are suppressing prices, but key importers (Turkey, Egypt, Iran) will maintain demand, especially with Turkey’s dwindling wheat stocks.
- Potential Export Recovery: Russia may resume shipments to Pakistan, absent in 2024/25.
Price Outlook: Will Barley Outperform Wheat?
Petrichenko notes that barley prices could rise further due to tight supply, recalling the 2018/19 season when barley briefly surpassed wheat. While short-term gains are possible, prices may stabilize later in the season.
The 2025/26 grain season presents unique opportunities, with barley emerging as a high-value crop. Farmers and traders should monitor export trends and adjust strategies to capitalize on shifting price dynamics.
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