Market Report: Price Fluctuations and Crop Outlooks on June 26, 2024
Global grain markets experienced a downward trend as of June 26, 2024, influenced by varied regional conditions and ongoing harvest activities. Major wheat, corn, and soybean prices saw declines on key exchanges, reflecting market adjustments and regional agricultural developments.
Market Trends
Wheat Prices:
- Chicago December 2024 wheat decreased by 11.5 cents per bushel to 582.75 cents per bushel.
- Kansas December 2024 wheat dropped by 5.5 cents per bushel to 596 cents per bushel.
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat fell by 10.75 cents per bushel to 622 cents per bushel.
- MATIF December 2024 wheat in Europe declined by €1.50 per tonne to €229 per tonne.
Corn and Soybeans:
- Corn December 2024 fell by 8.75 cents per bushel to 443 cents per bushel.
- Soybeans November 2024 decreased by 19 cents per bushel to 1111.5 cents per bushel.
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 dropped by C$13.50 per tonne to C$604.30 per tonne.
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 fell by €2.25 per tonne to €468.75 per tonne.
Australian Market:
- ASX January 2025 wheat increased by A$2 per tonne to $353 per tonne.
- ASX January 2025 barley remained unchanged at A$303.90 per tonne.
- The Australian dollar fell 10 points to US$0.6647.
International Market Developments
Egyptian Purchases: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) bought 470,000 tonnes of wheat in a recent tender, including 180,000 tonnes of Russian wheat at $227 per tonne and various European wheat shipments, marking a significant decrease in offer prices from the previous tender.
European Crop Conditions: The European Commission’s MARS report highlighted significant rainfall surpluses affecting crop development in the Benelux countries, Germany, France, and Italy, leading to delays in summer crop sowing and water-logged conditions in southern Germany. Conversely, persistent dry conditions have limited winter crop yield potential in Hungary, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia. Revised yield expectations include:
- Common wheat yield down 1% to 5.9 t/ha.
- Durum wheat yield down 4% to 3.3 t/ha.
- Barley yield unchanged at 5.1 t/ha.
- Canola yield down 2% to 3.2 t/ha.
- Corn yield unchanged at 7.55 t/ha.
Brazilian Harvest Progress: CONAB reported that Brazil’s 2023-24 first (full-season) maize harvest was 92% complete, with secondary (safrinha) harvest 28% complete. Despite some rain-induced delays in Rio Grande do Sul, positive yields are noted in Mato Grosso. Wheat sowing for 2024-25 was 68% complete, with mixed weather conditions affecting progress.
Black Sea Region: SovEcon forecasted a 25% drop in Ukrainian wheat exports for 2024-25, with corn exports also down 23%, reflecting reduced supply due to lower planted areas and yields. This reduction comes amid high export activity in the current season.
Local Australian Developments
Australian markets have been relatively quiet, with slight increases in wheat contracts. Parts of South Australia and western Victoria received some rainfall, with more expected. Current data shows a slight decrease in total grain on the stem for June, with wheat, canola, and sorghum all slightly down. The overall wait time at Australian grain ports has decreased, with seven vessels currently loading and ten anchored.
Conclusion
The global grain market is currently experiencing easing prices due to varied regional agricultural conditions and ongoing harvest activities. While some regions benefit from favorable weather and progress, others face challenges that could impact future yield potential. Market participants will continue to monitor these developments closely, particularly the weather conditions in key growing areas.
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