Russian wheat exports are finishing 2025 with exceptional momentum. Data from SovEcon indicates that December shipments are projected to reach 3.9 million tons, a figure 3.4 million tons higher than December 2024 and nearing the record 4.1 million tons set in 2022. This surge is fueled by aggressive buying from key importers; for example, Iran purchased 0.9 million tons in November, its highest monthly volume since early 2022, while Turkey bought 2.8 million tons in the first half of the season, nearly matching its total for the entire previous season. This strong demand has been facilitated by a 5% drop in domestic wheat prices in November-December, restoring export profitability.
Despite this robust end-of-year performance, the broader season paints a more complex picture. Cumulative exports for the July-December period are estimated at 26 million tons, still 2.4 million tons below the same period last year. The full-season export potential for 2025/26 is forecast at 44.2 million tons. Furthermore, a striking trend has emerged alongside the volume recovery: a severe narrowing of the export trade’s structure. According to the Russian Grain Union, only 36 companies exported wheat in December 2025, compared to 69 a year ago. Similarly, shipments reached just 27 countries, down from 36 in December 2024.
This concentration of trade into fewer hands and markets coincides with significant policy shifts. The government has doubled the export quota for countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to 20 million tons for the first half of 2026, up from 10.6 million tons a year earlier. While this quota expansion suggests confidence in supply, the narrowed commercial and geographic footprint introduces vulnerability. As noted in the USDA’s December 2025 Grain: World Markets and Trade report, such market concentration can increase systemic risk, making the entire export flow more sensitive to logistical bottlenecks, financial sanctions on individual traders, or diplomatic tensions with a shrinking list of buyer nations.
The Russian wheat export story for December 2025 is one of powerful, but potentially fragile, resurgence. Record-level shipments to major buyers demonstrate the enduring competitiveness of Russian grain on the global market, especially when supported by favorable domestic prices and increased quotas. However, the simultaneous and dramatic contraction in the number of active exporters and destination countries signals a consolidation that may enhance control for some but reduces the overall resilience and flexibility of the trade system. For global market observers and domestic stakeholders, the key takeaway is that volume alone is an incomplete metric; the architecture of trade—its diversity and redundancy—is equally critical for long-term stability.
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