The wheat complex opened the week sending mixed signals. In Chicago, Soft Red Winter (SRW) futures showed a tentative split, with December up ¼ cent while other contracts eased. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) was similarly uneven. The standout was Minneapolis spring wheat, firming 1-3 cents by midday, suggesting tighter near-term supplies for high-protein wheat. Underpinning the volatility is a market digesting tepid physical movement. The latest U.S. export inspections data revealed a significant weekly slowdown, with only 384,881 metric tons (MT) shipped for the week ending November 27. This marks a 19.89% drop from the previous week, though year-to-date totals remain 19.95% higher than last year. The destinations highlight shifting trade lanes: Vietnam (58,864 MT) and Mexico (51,792 MT) were the top recipients.
However, a lagging indicator—Export Sales data—painted a more robust picture for future shipments. For the week ending October 23, net sales of 499,778 MT were reported, soaring 46.43% above the prior week and beating the same week last year by 21.48%. This disconnect between strong sales and softer recent shipments underscores the “fits and starts” nature of current logistics and demand.
The broader narrative is being shaped by evolving harvest forecasts in key exporting nations. According to recent analysis from Argus Media, Russia’s 2025/26 wheat crop is now projected at 86.5 million MT, a downward revision of 1.9 million MT from earlier estimates. As the world’s largest wheat exporter, any constriction in Russian supply has immediate bullish implications for global price floors. Conversely, Australia’s 2025/26 crop is forecast by ABARES to rise 4% to 35.6 million MT. This anticipated rebound from the drier 2024/25 season offers a counterbalance, but one heavily dependent on East Asian demand and logistical efficiency.
The current wheat market is a study in contradictions: firm spring wheat against a softer complex, strong forward sales against weak recent shipments, and a potentially tightening Black Sea supply against a rebounding Southern Hemisphere harvest. For producers, the takeaway is that volatility is being driven by micro-factors like weekly export pace and macro-shifts in global production estimates. The downward revision in Russia’s forecast is arguably the most critical data point, providing underlying support. Agronomists and farm owners should view the strong U.S. export sales commitment as a positive demand signal, but one that requires monitoring shipment fulfillment. Navigating this landscape demands attention to both high-frequency data and the longer-term geopolitical and climatic forces reshaping the world’s wheat breadbaskets.
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