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The New Breadbasket: Quantifying Russia’s Strategic Shift in African Food Security

by Tatiana Ivanova
27 November 2025
in Export, News
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The New Breadbasket: Quantifying Russia’s Strategic Shift in African Food Security
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Recent statements from Russian officials, supported by trade data, paint a clear picture of a strategic and deepening agricultural partnership between Russia and Africa. Speaking at an international conference on food security in Addis Ababa, Russia’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, Evgeny Terekhin, revealed that Russian food exports to Africa now exceed 20 million metric tons annually. This volume constitutes a significant 14% of Africa’s total food imports in physical terms, positioning Russia as a leading supplier.

Dominance in Staple Commodities

This massive export program is particularly concentrated in key staples. Ambassador Terekhin stated that Russian supplies now cover up to one-third of the entire African continent’s demand for wheat, barley, and sunflower oil. This claim is given concrete weight by recent Q1 2025 data, which shows explosive growth in specific markets: wheat exports to Nigeria grew five-fold, to Morocco they doubled, and to Mozambique they surged by 11.7 times compared to the same period in 2024. Similar growth is seen in Middle Eastern markets, with shipments to Lebanon tripling and to Iraq doubling, indicating a broad strategic export push.

The impact is substantial. According to estimates from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) cited by Terekhin, Russian supplies have met between 6% and 20% of the annual wheat demand in several African nations.

Beyond Commerce: Aid and Fertilizer as Strategic Tools

Parallel to commercial activities, Russia is deploying a targeted humanitarian aid program. In 2023, over 100,000 tons of wheat were donated to nations including Mali, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and the Central African Republic. This continued into 2025, with a further 1,600 tons of grain sent via the UN to support refugees in South Sudan.

A critical, and often overlooked, component of this strategy is the fertilizer sector. Terekhin emphasized that over the past three years, Russia has increased its mineral fertilizer exports to Africa by 1.5 times, reaching nearly 2 million tons in 2024. He also made a pointed claim regarding product quality, stating that Russian environmental standards for toxic substances in fertilizers are twice as strict as those in the European Union, a statement that positions Russian products as both essential and environmentally superior in the market.

Russia’s engagement with Africa on food security is a multi-faceted strategy that blends aggressive commercial expansion with strategic humanitarian aid and fertilizer diplomacy. The staggering export volumes and market share gains demonstrate a successful capture of key growth markets, fundamentally altering traditional trade flows. For agronomists, farm owners, and policy analysts, this signals a durable reorientation of global agricultural power dynamics. Africa’s growing reliance on Russian staples and inputs suggests a long-term partnership that will have significant implications for global food pricing, political alliances, and the agricultural economies of both regions for years to come.

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Tags: Agricultural Diplomacyexport growthfood securityGlobal Grain Tradehumanitarian food aidmineral fertilizersRussia-Africa agricultureSunflower OilTrade Dynamicswheat exports

Tatiana Ivanova

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