Iran’s agricultural sector is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance in feed crops, with consumption growing to 15.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season while domestic production remains stagnant at 4.4 million tons. This 10.9 million ton deficit is creating substantial opportunities for exporting nations, particularly Russia and Kazakhstan, who have dramatically increased their agricultural exports to the Iranian market.
Production and Consumption Imbalance
According to USDA data for the 2025/26 season, Iran’s feed crop situation shows concerning trends:
- Barley production: 3.0 million tons (down 0.1 million tons from 2024/25)
- Corn production: 1.4 million tons (unchanged from previous season)
- Total domestic production: 4.4 million tons
- Total consumption: 15.3 million tons (increase of 0.3 million tons)
- Import requirement: 10.9 million tons
This deficit represents one of the largest feed gaps in the region and reflects broader challenges in Iranian agriculture. The International Grains Council reports that Middle Eastern feed demand has grown by 4-5% annually over the past five years, significantly outpacing production increases.
Russian Export Surge to Iran
Russia has emerged as the primary beneficiary of Iran’s feed deficit, showing remarkable export growth:
- Barley exports: 600,000 tons (July-August 2025) vs. 200,000 tons (same period 2024)
- Corn exports: 500,000 tons (July-August 2025) vs. 400,000 tons (same period 2024)
- Total growth: 67% increase in combined barley and corn exports
This export surge represents a strategic shift in Russian agricultural trade patterns. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reports that Middle Eastern exports have grown from 15% to 35% of total agricultural exports over the past three years, with Iran becoming a particularly important market.
Kazakhstan’s Emerging Role
Kazakhstan has unexpectedly emerged as a significant barley exporter to Iran:
- Barley exports: 38,000 tons (July-August 2025) vs. 5,000 tons (same period 2024)
- Growth rate: 660% year-over-year increase
- Market position: Now ranked among top five suppliers to Iran
This dramatic increase demonstrates Kazakhstan’s growing agricultural export capacity. The World Bank notes that Kazakhstan has invested heavily in agricultural modernization, with grain production increasing by 25% over the past decade.
Logistical Challenges and Infrastructure Constraints
The export boom has created significant logistical challenges:
- Port congestion: Iranian ports experiencing severe bottlenecks
- Vessel shortages: Market participants reporting shortage of ships in Astrakhan
- Transportation costs: Freight rates increasing by 20-30% on Iran routes
- Delivery delays: Extended waiting times affecting supply chain efficiency
The UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025 indicates that port congestion has become a global issue, with average waiting times increasing by 40% worldwide due to growing trade volumes and infrastructure limitations.
Wheat Sector Developments
The feed crop situation is mirrored in Iran’s wheat sector, where more dramatic changes are anticipated:
- Domestic production: Projected to decline to 13.5 million tons (down 2.5 million tons)
- Import requirements: Expected to increase to 3.0 million tons (up 2.1 million tons)
- Potential imports: National Wheat Farmers Syndicate suggests 4.5 million tons may be needed
Despite these projections, current wheat shipments have not yet shown significant increases, suggesting either timing issues or potential market adjustments.
Global Context and Regional Implications
Iran’s feed deficit reflects broader regional patterns:
- Middle East demand: Feed consumption growing 5-6% annually across region
- Water constraints: Limited irrigation capacity restricting domestic production
- Population growth: Increasing protein consumption driving feed demand
- Urbanization: Reduced agricultural land availability
The Food and Agriculture Organization reports that Middle Eastern countries now import 60-70% of their feed requirements, creating significant food security considerations.
Economic Impact and Market Opportunities
The Iranian feed deficit creates substantial economic opportunities:
- Export revenues: Estimated $2-3 billion annual opportunity for suppliers
- Logistics services: Growing demand for transportation and handling services
- Processing investments: Opportunities for feed processing facilities in Iran
- Agricultural technology: Potential for technology transfer to improve yields
Strategic Considerations for Suppliers
For current and potential suppliers to Iran, several factors deserve attention:
- Quality requirements: Iranian buyers increasingly demanding quality specifications
- Payment mechanisms: Navigating international payment systems amid sanctions
- Logistics planning: Advanced planning required due to infrastructure constraints
- Market intelligence: Understanding seasonal patterns and consumption trends
Iran’s growing feed deficit represents both a challenge and an opportunity for global agricultural markets. The 10.9 million ton gap between domestic production and consumption has created substantial export opportunities for neighboring countries, particularly Russia and Kazakhstan, who have dramatically increased their shipments to the Iranian market.
This situation highlights several important trends: the growing feed demand in Middle Eastern countries, the increasing importance of agricultural exports for former Soviet states, and the logistical challenges that emerge when trade volumes increase rapidly. It also underscores the food security challenges facing water-constrained nations with growing populations.
For agricultural producers and exporters, the Iranian market offers significant opportunities but requires careful navigation of logistical challenges, quality requirements, and payment mechanisms. The continued growth in Middle Eastern feed demand suggests that these opportunities will persist and potentially expand in coming years.
The situation also emphasizes the importance of domestic agricultural production for food security. While imports can bridge short-term gaps, long-term food security requires investment in domestic production capacity, water management, and agricultural technology.
