Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is forecast to reach 87 million tons, according to Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). This figure includes an estimated 2.5 million tons from the newly incorporated regions of Donbas and Novorossiya, despite severe drought conditions.
Key Regional Insights
- Drought Impact in Southern Regions
- Donbas and Novorossiya face yield losses comparable to Rostov Oblast due to water shortages.
- Expected output remains below potential, but 2.5 million tons will still contribute to national supply.
- Strong Performance in Central Russia & Volga Region
- IKAR revised its initial forecast up by 0.5 million tons (to 84.5 million tons excluding new regions).
- Higher-than-expected yields in the Central Black Earth and Volga regions drove adjustments.
- Market Analysts Raise Projections Further
- SovEcon’s latest estimate stands at 85.2 million tons (+1.9 million tons from prior forecast).
- Rosstat’s updated sowing area data supports optimism for Siberia and the Volga.
Global Context & Export Potential
- Russia remains the world’s top wheat exporter, with 2025/26 shipments projected at 48-50 million tons (USDA).
- Price competitiveness may strengthen if drought reduces quality in southern regions, increasing feed wheat availability.
Resilience Amid Climate Uncertainty
While Russia’s wheat sector demonstrates strong production resilience, regional droughts highlight vulnerabilities in newly integrated territories. Strategic water management and adaptive farming practices will be crucial to sustaining long-term growth.
Error
