The U.S. is on track to achieve a record 2.75 billion bushels of corn exports in the 2024-25 marketing year, slightly surpassing the previous high set in 2020-21 (USDA, July 2024). Surprisingly, this milestone comes despite China—once the top buyer—importing just 5 million metric tons, a 79% drop from the previous year. Instead, strong demand from Mexico, Japan, and Colombia has filled the gap (Reuters, USDA).
Brazil, now the world’s second-largest corn exporter, is also expanding production, with USDA raising its 2024-25 crop estimate to 132 million tons, an 11% increase year-over-year. While Brazil’s growing supply could challenge U.S. dominance, American exporters have already sold 99% of projected shipments—the highest pre-season sales coverage in 12 years.
Biofuel Boom Reshapes Soybean Markets
The U.S. biofuel sector is driving unprecedented demand for soybean oil, with USDA forecasting a record 15.5 billion pounds for biofuel production in 2025-26—23% above the three-year average. For the first time, biofuels will account for over half (53%) of total U.S. soybean oil use, reducing export availability (USDA).
This shift is partly due to policy incentives, including tax credits and restrictions on foreign feedstock. As a result, U.S. soybean processing is expected to reach 2.54 billion bushels, the highest in 18 years. However, 2025-26 soybean exports are projected at just 1.745 billion bushels, the lowest July forecast in 11 years, with China yet to make any new-crop purchases—its slowest start since 2005.
Market Sentiment: Funds Remain Cautious
Speculators have turned net short on CBOT soybean futures for the first time in three months, reflecting concerns over sluggish demand. Meanwhile, corn and wheat positions show slight optimism, with wheat net shorts at an eight-month low. However, overall sentiment remains bearish, with traders bracing for potential record U.S. corn yields in 2024.
The U.S. agricultural sector is navigating a shifting trade landscape—declining Chinese demand, Brazilian competition, and a biofuel-driven soybean boom. While corn exports defy expectations, the long-term outlook hinges on global demand and policy shifts. Farmers and traders must stay agile as domestic biofuel needs reshape crop allocations and export dynamics.
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