Recent weather conditions in Kazakhstan’s grain-producing regions have been unfavorable, with hot temperatures, sporadic thunderstorms, and hail depleting soil moisture reserves. Late-sown crops, which failed to develop robust root systems, are particularly vulnerable. While meteorologists predict a slight cooling by mid-week, followed by rain, the damage may already be impacting yield potential.
Shrinking Grain Reserves
Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks fell by 2.2 million tons in May, reaching just 7.37 million tons by June 1—a 10% decline compared to the previous year. Barley reserves also dropped sharply, down 0.35 million tons to 0.67 million tons. Total grain and legume stocks stood at 8.6 million tons, reflecting tightening domestic supply.
Price Increases and Market Trends
- High-quality wheat (3rd class, 28-29% gluten) rose by 1,000 KZT/ton, reaching 125,000–128,000 KZT/ton.
- ETC trading volumes remained low at 10,210 tons, with 3rd-class wheat (23-24% gluten) selling for 107,000 KZT/ton (CPT) and 4th-class wheat at 86,732 KZT/ton (DAP Saryagash).
- Export prices stagnated due to weak demand, though domestic prices showed upward momentum.
Government Subsidies and Export Trends
Kazakhstan’s Food Contract Corporation has disbursed 7 billion KZT in transport subsidies for 310,200 tons of wheat exports to distant markets. A total of 356 applications (worth 17.3 billion KZT) were submitted, covering 765,100 tons of wheat exports.
Current Price Benchmarks (June 9–15)
Domestic (EXW, with 12% VAT, KZT/ton):
- 3rd-class wheat: 95,000–128,000
- Hi-Pro wheat (30%+ gluten): 138,000–142,000
- Feed barley: 87,000–91,000
- Flaxseed: 300,000–305,000
Export (USD/ton):
- 3rd-class wheat: 210–285 (DAP Saryagash)
- Hi-Pro wheat: 305–315
- Barley: 208–212 (DAP Saryagash), 235–237 (FOB Aktau)
Kazakhstan’s wheat market faces mounting pressure from drought risks, shrinking reserves, and rising domestic prices. While export demand remains subdued, government subsidies aim to sustain trade flows. Farmers and traders should monitor weather forecasts and global price trends closely to optimize sales and mitigate risks.
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