Wheat futures opened the week on a bearish note, with all three major U.S. markets reporting losses on Monday. Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) futures fell by 13 to 15 cents, Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) contracts dropped 11 to 14 cents, and Minneapolis Spring Wheat (HRS) ended 8 to 10 cents lower. The losses stemmed largely from improving crop conditions and favorable planting progress across key growing regions.
According to the latest USDA Export Inspections report, 646,564 metric tons (MT) — approximately 23.76 million bushels (mbu) — of wheat were shipped during the week ending April 24. This marks a strong 26.72% increase over the previous week and a 28.6% surge compared to the same period last year. South Korea led as the top export destination with 147,255 MT, followed by Mexico at 111,779 MT. Cumulative marketing year exports now stand at 19.46 million metric tons (MMT), or 715 million bushels, which is 14.85% higher year-over-year, signaling robust international demand.
On the production side, the USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that 30% of the U.S. spring wheat crop has been planted — ahead of the 21% five-year average, though slightly behind the 34% market expectation. Emergence was reported at 5%, matching the typical pace. Meanwhile, the winter wheat crop is progressing well, with 27% now headed as of April 27, compared to the five-year average of 22%. Notably, winter wheat condition ratings improved: 49% of the crop was rated good-to-excellent, up 4% from the previous week. The Brugler500 index, a composite rating of crop conditions, rose by 9 points to 334.
Global context also plays a role. According to the International Grains Council (IGC) April report, global wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to reach 795 million tons, slightly down from the previous year but still reflecting strong supply expectations. Combined with improved U.S. crop prospects, this has added to downward pressure on wheat futures early in the week.
The wheat market’s dip at the start of the week reflects a combination of improving crop conditions, strong export flows, and global supply stability. For farmers, agronomists, and market watchers, it’s a critical time to closely monitor planting progress, weather forecasts, and global trade trends. Staying flexible with marketing strategies and understanding the evolving supply-demand balance will be key to navigating the upcoming weeks.
Error
