Iran’s Ministry of Agriculture has warned that the country is bracing for a significant decline in wheat production this year, as extreme weather patterns and a lack of rainfall have crippled dryland farming regions. Estimates suggest that 2025 wheat output will fall to between 9 and 11 million metric tons (MMT)—a sharp drop from the 16 MMT produced in 2024, which marked a record-breaking harvest for the country.
More pessimistic projections, including those from Deputy Agriculture Minister Gholamreza Golmohammadi, suggest that output could dip as low as 8 MMT, particularly if late-season weather does not improve in vulnerable regions.
Rainfall Deficit Strikes Dryland Farms
Much of Iran’s wheat production is rainfed, and this year’s lower-than-average precipitation has taken a toll, especially across central and eastern provinces, which are heavily dependent on early spring rainfall. According to Mohammad Reza Talayi, another senior agriculture official, “The major losses have been recorded in dryland zones, which account for a substantial portion of national wheat acreage.”
However, there is cautious optimism for western and northwestern provinces—notably Kermanshah, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan—where recent rainfall has improved soil moisture and could support better-than-average yields in the late-summer harvest.
A Reversal of Self-Sufficiency
The potential production shortfall comes just one year after Iran declared self-sufficiency in wheat, cutting imports to just 1.8 MMT—down from 8.8 MMT the previous year. In 2024, the government spent over $3 billion purchasing nearly 12 MMT of domestically grown wheat from farmers under its guaranteed procurement program.
That success allowed Iran to halt large-scale wheat purchases from major suppliers like Russia, its leading trade partner in the grain market. However, the 2025 deficit may force the country to import between 4 and 6 MMT to stabilize domestic supply, particularly for subsidized bread programs, which remain a cornerstone of Iran’s food security policy.
Procurement Program Already Underway
Despite the setback, Iran’s Government Trading Corporation (GTC) began its annual procurement campaign in April, targeting over 814,000 farmers across southern provinces. The government plans to continue purchases through September, when harvests in the northwestern provinces conclude.
The procurement price and payment schedule will be critical in ensuring farmer participation, particularly as input costs continue to rise due to currency fluctuations and global inflation. Reports indicate that grain prices remain subsidized domestically, creating further pressure on government budgets amid reduced harvest volumes.
Regional and Global Context
Iran’s expected shortfall could also affect regional grain markets, especially if it begins sourcing large quantities from global exporters. Iran typically buys wheat from Russia, Kazakhstan, and European traders, and a renewed presence on the import market could tighten global availability.
Meanwhile, other key wheat-producing nations such as India, Australia, and the EU are forecasting stable or above-average harvests, which may help absorb additional Iranian demand without causing major price shocks.
Iran’s looming wheat production decline is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in a changing climate. While western provinces may provide a partial cushion, the overall national outlook has shifted from self-sufficiency to renewed dependence on imports. For Iranian farmers, agronomists, and policymakers, the coming months will require careful management of procurement logistics, market pricing, and international trade to ensure food security amid tightening supplies.
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