Russia’s 2024–2025 Wheat Export Outlook: Still the World Leader
Russia has confirmed its position as a wheat superpower. According to the analytical center Rusagrotrans, the country is forecast to export 40.8 million tonnes of wheat in the 2024–2025 agricultural season, which began July 1. This volume keeps Russia in first place globally, accounting for approximately 22% of global wheat trade, excluding flour.
Although this share is slightly lower than the 28% peak in the 2023–2024 season, when Russia exported a record 55.5 million tonnes, the drop is mainly attributed to increased competition from the U.S. and Argentina, whose harvests are recovering after previous years of weather-related declines.
Global Context: Russia vs. Other Wheat Exporters
The global wheat market remains highly competitive. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that global wheat exports will reach about 205–210 million tonnes in 2024–2025. If Russia hits the 40.8 million mark, its 22% share would still eclipse rivals like:
- United States – projected exports around 25–27 million tonnes
- European Union – 32–34 million tonnes, but fragmented among member states
- Australia – around 23 million tonnes, depending on weather conditions
- Canada – expected to export 22–24 million tonnes
Even with some market losses, Russia’s position remains solid due to its price competitiveness, logistics infrastructure on the Black Sea, and consistent demand from key markets.
Who’s Buying Russian Wheat?
Based on data from July to March (nine months of the current agricultural year), Russia exported around 36.2 million tonnes of wheat (including trade with EAEU countries). While this is 4.7 million tonnes less than the same period in the record-setting 2023–2024 season, it is above the five-year average of 34.1 million tonnes and ranks third-highest historically.
Top importers of Russian wheat this season include:
- Egypt – 7.6 million tonnes (up 1.7 million y/y)
- Bangladesh – 2.55 million tonnes (down 0.4 million y/y)
- Turkey – 2.52 million tonnes (resumed after lifting soft wheat duties in March)
- Algeria – 1.68 million tonnes (slightly down from 1.75 million)
- Kenya – 1.43 million tonnes (a seasonal record)
In March, Russia also resumed wheat exports to Iran after a four-month break, with an initial shipment of 144,000 tonnes, signaling potential for renewed trade with the region.
What’s Driving Russian Wheat’s Resilience?
Several factors help Russia maintain its dominant wheat export status:
- High domestic harvests: Russia produced 92.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2023, ensuring surplus supply (Rosstat, 2024).
- Low production costs: Russian wheat remains cheaper than that from North America or the EU, giving it a strong advantage in price-sensitive markets.
- Strategic export infrastructure: Ports on the Black Sea and growing rail links help efficiently move grain to Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
- Political and trade alliances: Russia’s strong ties with countries like Egypt, Iran, and Turkey support consistent demand even amid global tensions.
Although Russia’s wheat export volume in 2024–2025 may not reach the historic highs of the previous year, its projected 40.8 million tonnes and 22% share of the global market confirm that the country remains a global grain leader. Strong logistics, price competitiveness, and sustained demand from key buyers position Russia to shape wheat trade dynamics for the foreseeable future. For farmers, agribusiness professionals, and global buyers, understanding Russia’s role is crucial in navigating market trends and planning future strategies.
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