Current projections indicate that Russia’s grain harvest for 2025 could decrease to 120 million tons, down from 125 million tons in 2024. This anticipated decline is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions affecting winter crops, though improvements may occur in the spring.
In 2024, Russia harvested approximately 128 million metric tons of grain, including over 84 million metric tons of wheat. This marked a decrease from the record-high grain harvest of 158 million metric tons in 2022. The anticipated reduction in the 2025 harvest is primarily due to adverse agro-climatic conditions leading to reduced yields.
Winter crops have faced challenging weather, with reports indicating that 37% are in poor condition—the highest in at least two decades. This deterioration raises concerns about the potential impact on the upcoming harvest.
The unfavorable conditions have also affected farmers’ profitability. In 2024, grain producers experienced minimal to negative profitability, diminishing their interest in cultivating grain crops. Additionally, the costs associated with fieldwork have risen, with expenses for spring field operations estimated at 1 trillion rubles. Notably, farmers have purchased 70,000 tons less mineral fertilizers compared to the same period last year, with prices increasing between 3% and 6%, depending on the type.
Despite these challenges, experts believe that Russia has the potential to produce 200 million tons of grain annually by sowing 50 million hectares with grain crops. However, the optimal production volume is considered to be 130 million tons, balancing domestic needs and export potential. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to achieve a production target of 170 million tons of grain by 2030, with 80 million tons designated for export.
The projected decrease in Russia’s grain harvest for 2025 underscores the significant impact of weather conditions on agricultural output. While challenges persist, strategic planning and favorable climatic developments in the coming months could help mitigate potential declines and stabilize production levels.
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