Navigating Shifts in Turkey’s Wheat Import Policies: Impacts on Domestic Production and Global Trade

In the 2024-25 marketing year, Turkey’s wheat production is forecasted at 19 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 2 MMT from the previous year, primarily due to drier-than-normal weather conditions.

To manage domestic wheat stocks and support local producers, the Turkish government implemented a temporary suspension of the Inward Processing Regime (IPR) from late June to mid-October 2024. This policy required flour millers to procure wheat from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), leading to a 40% reduction in wheat imports during the first half of the marketing year, totaling 1.9 MMT.

Following the partial lifting of the IPR suspension in mid-October, millers were mandated to source 85% of their wheat domestically and were permitted to import the remaining 15%. This ratio was later adjusted to 75% domestic and 25% imported wheat. These measures are expected to remain until the next harvest in May 2025.

Consequently, Turkey’s wheat imports are projected to reach 5.5 MMT for the 2024-25 marketing year, a significant decrease from previous years. Russia is anticipated to remain the primary supplier.

The reduction in wheat imports has also impacted Turkey’s flour export industry. Exports of wheat flour decreased by 17.2% in 2024 compared to the previous year, dropping from 3.648 million tons to 3.022 million tons.

Turkey’s strategic adjustments to wheat import policies have led to a notable decrease in wheat imports and have influenced both domestic production and export dynamics. While these measures aim to support local agriculture and manage existing stocks, they present challenges for the flour export sector. Stakeholders must navigate these changes carefully to maintain stability and competitiveness in the global market.

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Navigating Shifts in Turkey’s Wheat Import Policies: Impacts on Domestic Production and Global Trade

Tatiana Ivanova

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