French Wheat Exports at Historic Lows: What It Means for Global Markets

A Challenging Year for French Wheat

The 2024/25 season has proven to be one of the most challenging for French wheat exporters in decades. FranceAgriMer, the country’s agricultural office, has projected soft wheat exports to non-EU markets at just 3.5 million metric tonnes—a 66% drop compared to the previous season and the lowest level in the agency’s records since 1996/97.

This sharp decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including:

Reduced demand from key markets: Diplomatic tensions have halted exports to Algeria, one of France’s major wheat buyers. Meanwhile, purchases from China have also slowed considerably.
Increased competition: Cheaper supplies from Black Sea exporters, particularly Russia and Ukraine, have undercut French wheat on the global market.
Poor domestic harvest: Adverse weather conditions during the growing season affected both the yield and quality of the French wheat crop, further limiting its competitiveness.

Impact on Other Grains

The situation is not limited to soft wheat. FranceAgriMer’s outlook for other grains also reflects challenges:

Barley: Projected non-EU exports have been revised down to 1.9 million tonnes, a 50% drop from the previous season. Stocks are expected to climb to 1.61 million tonnes, a 16-year high.
Maize: Stocks are forecasted to reach 2.80 million tonnes, a 10-year peak, due to reduced intra-EU exports and declining domestic feed demand.
Durum Wheat: Quality issues with the French harvest have led to an increased share being diverted to domestic feed use, lowering end-of-season stocks to 106,000 tonnes from the previously forecasted 143,000 tonnes.

Broader Implications for Global Markets

France’s struggles in the export market reflect broader trends in global agriculture:

Growing dominance of Black Sea suppliers: Countries like Russia and Ukraine continue to expand their market share, leveraging lower production costs and favorable geographic access to key buyers.
Shifts in demand dynamics: Diplomatic and economic factors increasingly shape grain trade flows. Algeria’s pivot away from French wheat, for instance, underscores how geopolitical tensions can influence agricultural trade.
Climate variability: Weather extremes are disrupting production in many regions, including France, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies in crop management and export planning.

The current export challenges facing French wheat underscore the complex interplay of local production issues, geopolitical factors, and global competition. While France remains a significant player in the EU grain market, its declining presence in non-EU exports signals a need for strategic shifts in both production practices and trade policies. For farmers and exporters, resilience in the face of changing market dynamics will be key to navigating the future.

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French Wheat Exports at Historic Lows: What It Means for Global Markets

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