July 25, 2024 – Comprehensive Analysis of Grain and Oilseed Markets
The agricultural commodity markets have shown a mix of movements today, reflecting various factors including weather conditions, export forecasts, and international market dynamics. This update provides a detailed overview of the latest price changes, crop conditions, and significant industry developments.
Market Overview
Grain and Oilseed Prices:
- Chicago December 2024 wheat increased by 3.25 cents to 571c/bu.
- Kansas December 2024 wheat slightly rose by 0.5c to 583.75c/bu.
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat decreased by 4.75c to 628.25c/bu.
- MATIF December 2024 wheat fell by €0.25 to €231.25/t.
- Corn December 2024 rose by 0.75c to 418c/bu.
- Soybeans November 2024 dropped significantly by 11.5c to 1064c/bu.
- Winnipeg November 2024 canola declined by C$7.80 to C$670.60/t.
- MATIF November 2024 rapeseed decreased by €6.75 to €492.75/t.
- ASX January 2025 wheat increased by A$1 to A$347/t.
- ASX January 2025 barley remained unchanged at A$303.90/t.
- AUD/USD fell by 35 points to US$0.6581.
International Market Insights
The first day of the US Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour concluded with an impressive average yield estimate of 52.3 bushels per acre, the highest since the tour began in 1994. However, a high incidence of Fusarium head blight was reported, which could impact overall quality.
In Canada, the Manitoba Crop Report highlighted variable rainfall across the province, aiding crop growth. While spring wheat was mostly in fair to good condition, some regions reported 5-10% of the crop as poor. Early seeded canola fields were at the pod-filling stage, with increased flower blast due to warm temperatures.
Brazil’s grain exporter association ANEC revised its July soybean export forecast down by 0.3Mt to 10.4Mt, while soymeal exports reached a record 2.4Mt and corn exports increased to 4.6Mt.
China reported its largest grain output increase in nine years, driven by a bumper wheat harvest, reaching a record 149.78Mt this summer. This surge is attributed to both increased area and yield.
Indonesia announced plans to implement a palm-oil-based B40 biodiesel mandate in 2025, up from the current B35, aiming to reduce energy imports and boost domestic palm oil consumption.
In corporate news, the European Union is expected to approve Bunge Global SA’s US$8.2 billion buyout of Viterra Inc., creating the world’s second-largest agricultural trading company by revenue. This merger will significantly influence the soybean and wheat markets.
Australian Market Dynamics
In Western Australia, new season canola values held steady at around $820/t, with GM prices rising by A$9 to $760/t. The price spread between GM and non-GM canola narrowed significantly from $90/t last week to $60/t. New season wheat saw modest gains to around $370/t.
Eastern Australia saw similar trends with new season canola bid around $750/t and GM canola increasing by $5 to $715/t. Barley prices remained unchanged at $330/t. New season wheat prices rose to $360/t, while nearby wheat prices dropped slightly to $340/t.
Unseasonably warm weather was recorded in parts of the southern cropping regions, with temperatures between 21-24°C. Some patchy rain brought 1-10mm across WA’s cropping belt, with isolated areas receiving up to 25mm.
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