International Grain Market Update
Canola futures experienced a significant rally, climbing by three percent, reflecting a broader pattern of mixed movements across various grain markets.
Market Movements:
- Chicago December 2024 wheat: Decreased by US3.5 cents per bushel to 560c/bu.
- Kansas December 2024 wheat: Increased by 1.5 cents per bushel to 579c/bu.
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat: Increased by 8.75 cents per bushel to 620.25c/bu.
- MATIF December 2024 wheat: Decreased by €0.50 per ton to €223.25/t.
- December 2024 corn: Decreased by 6.75 cents per bushel to 405c/bu.
- November 2024 soybeans: Increased by 2 cents per bushel to 1043c/bu.
- Winnipeg November 2024 canola: Increased by C$18.20 per ton to C$649.70/t.
- MATIF November 2024 rapeseed: Increased by €13 per ton to €494.25/t.
- ASX January 2025 wheat: Unchanged at A$340 per ton.
- ASX January 2025 barley: Unchanged at A$303.90 per ton.
- AUD/USD: Decreased by 23 points to US$0.6706.
International Developments
Japan:
- Purchased 115,000 tons of milling wheat as part of its weekly tender, sourcing 55,000 tons from the US and 60,000 tons from Canada.
South Korea:
- Bought 40,000 tons of US milling wheat for delivery in the first half of October.
China:
- June corn imports fell by 50 percent year-on-year, totaling 920,000 tons.
- June wheat imports rose by 44 percent year-on-year, reaching 1.19 million tons.
- A lack of new policy measures from China’s Third Plenum has dampened commodity market sentiment.
Ukraine:
- APK revised its soybean production estimate down by 2 percent to 5.9 million tons.
- Sunflower seed output was adjusted down by 1 percent to 14.4-14.5 million tons due to hot weather conditions.
Canada:
- Cargill announced that its new crush plant in Saskatchewan is over 50 percent complete, with operations expected to start in 2025. The plant will have the capacity to crush one million tons of canola annually.
Global Production:
- The International Grains Council (ICG) increased its world grain production estimate, forecasting coarse grains production to rise by 8 million tons to a record 2,321 million tons in 2024/25, marking a 1 percent increase from last year.
Australian Market Update
Western Australia:
- Prices saw a slight increase, with the most notable change being a $33 per ton rise in nearby canola in the Geraldton port zone. New season GM canola bids increased by $18 per ton, maintaining a -$90 per ton spread to non-GM canola in most port zones.
- Wheat and barley bids for the new crop remained unchanged, while nearby prices firmed by $5 per ton in most regions.
Eastern Australia:
- Nearby canola bids rose by $17 per ton for both GM and non-GM varieties, with similar gains for the new season.
- Wheat and barley prices were largely unchanged for both new and old seasons.
Weather Conditions:
- Significant rainfall was recorded overnight and throughout the previous day. The southwest of Western Australia received up to 50mm in coastal regions, extending to Geraldton. Inland areas saw between 1-25mm of rain. Patchy showers across South Australia, Victoria, and parts of New South Wales cropping regions brought 1-10mm of rain.
